Preseason 2013 Week #4: Final Cuts – Notes and Nuggets

Preseason Week 4:

Things to look for tonight

• Injuries!!! Its way easier to pick up an undrafted back up now than when the season starts this is essential
o Pay attention to any backups that go down. That 3rd stringer could     become fantasy relevant

• A good majority of the players that get extended playing time tonight usually fall into one of two categories. This is far from absolute, but it can give you an idea

o Coming back from injury and need a week to get some work
o Fighting for a roster spot

• Pay attention to position battles. This game could very well decide the back 5 to 10 roster spots on the final 53.
• Special teams play is essential for most non-starters to make the team. Many great players have cut their teeth here.
• The teams loaded with talent, Seattle, San Fran, Cincinnati, Green Bay, etc… will have several of their 75 to 53 cut players signed elsewhere. Monitor these; you never know when a backup will be a starter down the road.
• Expect a few low level trades for players. Some teams won’t want to wait for a players release and want to secure the player so they don’t hit the open market.
 o Chris Harper 2013 4th round pick of the Seahawks might fall into this category. He might not make the team, but still has shown good potential.
• Cuts like this are agonizing for teams. Wasting a resource (4th round pick) and having the possibility of him being a cut is a real bind. Some teams will cut the better player because of the resource allocation.
Additional notes
• Just because they make the final 53 man roster does not mean they will be on the roster past week 1.
o Veteran’s salaries are guaranteed when signed prior to week 1. Most teams will sign vets after this to avoid guaranteeing the salary. Doing this means one of the players on the back end of the final 53 will get cut.
•Pay attention to who gets signed to the practice squad. Many successful NFL players have spent time here.

 

-Ron

2013 Preseason Week 3: Vikings at 49ers

49ers

• Colin Kaepernick looked ready to go in this one.  Sure he has less than a season’s worth of starts under his belt, but from what I saw in this game, he looks ready for another successful season.  The only thing I can see holding him back is a lack of weapons on the outside
• Rookie WR Quinton Patton saw his first playing time of the year and looked like he will be a contributor early this season.  With the lack of weapons in the 49ers passing game, he could be a great late round pick or waiver wire gem. High dynasty and keeper value
• Though I have a few reservations about the 49ers’ secondary, they look to be an elite defensive unit again this year. Justin Smith, the key to the defense, looked like a honey badger.   He did what he wanted to opposing linemen.   They have one of the best front 7’s in the league.
• I am not sure why Kendall Hunter is slipping in most drafts.  He is clearly the second best back on this team.   He has great vision and acceleration.  He can be had late in most drafts or as a waiver wire pick up.
• Former 1^st round pick Jonathan Baldwin caught 2 passes for 23 yards.   Maybe he catches on here.  I don’t believe he can contribute much on special teams, so he will have to win a WR job outright.  Little fantasy impact here.

Vikings

• Christian Ponder hasn’t had the best preseason. That isn’t hard to tell.  However, without all-world RB Adrian Peterson in the backfield, it’s hard to get a read on the offense as a whole because he changes defensive schemes that much.
• Rookie Cordarrelle Patterson looks like he will be pretty involved in the offense this year.  I would expect his role to grow as the season progresses.   Late round / waiver wire flyer on this guy for now.  Huge upside in dynasty and keeper leagues.
• Matt Cassel didn’t look very sharp in relief of Ponder.   I’m not sure if there is much of a difference between the two Qb’s aside from Ponders upside.
• Toby Gerhart does not excite me as a backup to A.P.  He has been productive in the past, but please don’t draft his handcuff too high.   His only value is as a handcuff to A.P.and nothing more.

-Ron

2013 Preseason Week 3: Saints at Texans

Saints

• Pierre Thomas looked solid in this game.  He started the game and had a long catch and run on a check down.  He may be the defacto starter in this RBBC
• Nick Toon looks the part at WR.  I am not sure he will be a huge part of the offense, but he will make the roster
• WR Kenny Stills looks like a 5th round steal.  He beat Jonathan Joseph to the post on a with a great corner move for a TD and made a great catch on a long pass in the second quarter.  He is a player and can be had late in most redraft leagues
• RB Mark Ingram looks noticeably slimmer and faster.  He will never be a shifty back, but he does look quicker than in the past.  If he gets goal line carries, he could be a factor as a RB3.
• Lance Moore is always under rated. He always produces and gets more TD chances than most WR’s his size.

Texans

• Matt Schaub had a good game, but the man is a statue in the pocket.  No mobility whatsoever.
• Andre Johnson looked healthy.  I think the speculation of his decline might wait another year.  I’m not saying he will put up the number he did last year, but he will not fall off the map.
• Ben Tate will be able to carry the load if Foster gets hurt.   He looked decisive and quick.  He also took the ugly 3 to 4 yards given to him instead of dancing around.  Showed  patience.
• Kicker Bullock has a big leg.  Nailed a 55 yarder.
• DeAndre Hopkins did not play as he recovers from his concussion.

Ron

Preseason Notes

Random Sleeper Notes

• San Diego TE- Ladarius Green will have a sizable role in the offense.  I like him as a player and his situation.   There are not a lot of weapons on that team
• Denver TE – Julius Thomas has some potential, but I like him less because of his situation.  There are a lot of mouths to feed in that Denver offense.  Definitely a player to watch.
• Seattle WR – Stephen Williams.  He is one to monitor on the waiver wire.  Pete Carroll has never been shy on giving guys a chance.  He could be the deep threat Seattle has been looking for.  I would monitor him in deep redraft leagues and dynasty leagues.
• Assuming Gabbert Plays well, I think the Jaguars offense will be better than most think in 2013.  Keep an eye to the waiver wire for MJD’s backup.  Either Jordan Toddman or Justin Forsett.   At this point in his career you can’t assume health with MJD
• Kenjon Barner RB Carolina is a rookie out of Oregon, maybe worth a dynasty stash.  Williams, Stewart as well as the coaching staff could be on the outs in Carolina if they play poorly this year.

Random Team Notes

• Don’t get too crazed watching the Minnesota offense.   Without AP in the backfield in the preseason defenses aren’t paying attention to the run at all.    They won’t be world beaters, but they won’t be as bad as they have looked thus far.
• Carolina first string offense hasn’t played very well this preseason.   This concerns me more than some of the other offenses that are struggling.

-Ron

2013 Preseason Week 3: Sehawks at Packers

Seahawks at Packers

Seahawks

• Robert Turbin looked much better this week than last.   Looked like he shook the rust off.  10 carries for 50 yards.  He is in a battle with Christine Michael for the #2 role behind Lynch.  Turbin also has underrated hands 4 catches for 22 yards.
• Christine Michael showed why he was a second round pick.  He ran for 97 yards on just 11 carries and had a 43 yard TD run.  He was close to breaking a few more.  He is the biggest breakaway running threat on this team.  He has excellent balance and vision.  He is firmly locked in a battle with Turbin for the #2 job in the Seattle backfield.
• Stephen Williams continues to impress with 2 catches for 58 and another touchdown.   The Cardinals cast off is going to make this roster and push for playing time.  He is looking like a deep threat that also has some YAC ability.    Monitor this guy closely.  He could be a waiver wire gem
• The Seattle D looked strong in this game.    The injuries/ suspensions to the pass rushers is concerning in the short term, but overall they are a top 5 fantasy defense.

Packers

• Eddie Lacy did not look as good in this game as he did in the last, but don’t let this scare you off of him.  He will be a top 5 rookie producer this year.  He is probably the #1 pick in most dynasty formats.
• Jermichael Finley Dropsies continue, but he looks to remain a focal point of the offense.   The drops are concerning, but I think you can get him at a relatively low draft position and get near TE1 productivity.
• Jonathan Franklin does not look like he is ready for prime time yet.  I think he will need a year of seasoning before he is ready to contribute.
• The corpse of Vince Young has been reanimated and he looked good.  I have a strong feeling he will be the backup in QB.
• The Green Bay pass rush did look formidable, but I think they are being overrated in most formats.  A solid D but I do not think they are an elite fantasy unit as of now.

-Ron

2013 Preseason Week 3: Cincinnati at Dallas

CINCINNATI

So here’s something you don’t see everyday.  WR Brandon Tate had a 75 yard TD in this one on a punt return.  But that wasn’t the “real” story here.  The real story is that it came about on the 2nd attempt of the punt, b/c the 1st punt attempt by the Cowboys hit the bottom of their giant scoreboard/video screen (!!) and had to be blown dead (after review).  It’s too bad this didn’t happen in a real game, namely: that the house that Jerry built blew up in his face.

DALLAS

I hate talking about the Cowboys’ running game.  To me they are all a bunch of the same medium talent level dudes.  RB Demarco Murray – looked bad early on with a fumble, got benched came back ran hard, finished with 12 carries for 51 yards against the Bengals 2nd string defense.

But, the running game was pretty much opened up by the passing game (we’ll get to that) and Murray is not markedly all that much better than the guys behind him.   Add to that his fumbles and injury history and his current ADP in 12 team leagues of rd 3 or 4 looks like a compulsory pick with the theory that he’s not currently in an official timeshare.   To me a guy like RB Philip Tanner is  perfectly capable of replicating most of the things Murray does (although not the speed) – but he’s not worth drafting in fantasy unless an injury happens before week 1 – or if you’re in a particularly large league.  All of the Dallas RB’s – even Murray are “just a guy” – you draft Murray reluctantly because he has the lead job that could get you the carries – but you can’t be overly excited about it.

You have to be excited about the Cowboys passing attack however.  Everyone knows about the potential for WR Dez Bryant.  So what I can’t figure out is why QB Tony Romo’s ADP started so low…it’s starting to climb now into the high 6th round, but that may even be value there depending on your league rules.   This is a case where Romo’s real life struggles with crazy style turnovers and late season failures has sort of overshadowed his elite-ish fantasy output.

If you like Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Matt Stafford why not like Tony Romo?  Romo will be in a similar high production offense, with high attempts – has a similar below average OL working in front of him (with the exception of Russel Wilson in Seattle), and is surrounded by talented skill players.  I can make a good case that Tony Romo should go off the board even in the company of Cam Newton or Rg3 – Romo really does belong in the QB 5-7 conversation for 2013, and I don’t see it happening.  So before his ADP rises anymore based off his good preseason – it’s time to start planning on Romo as your “backup” plan at the QB spot.  If you miss a Cam or a Stafford – don’t worry pick another position there and target Romo in the 5th or 6th rounds.  He’ll be worth it – and best yet you’ll get to pair him with someone you took in the 2nd or 3rd rounds (instead of a QB) to help you out.

By extension this line of thinking also brings us to WR Miles Austin (4 catches for 59 and a TD in this one).  But “he’s made of glass” you scream.  “I know” I say – “and not even good glass – like the original I-Phone screen glass” you continue…“it’s a risk I admit” I reply….but here’s what I’m looking at….

4 of the last 5 seasons Austin has finished with 900 yards and 6 TD’s as his minimum.  In other season of those 5, he wasn’t on the field enough to get 900, but he had already 7 TD’s at that point to go with about 500 yards.

And did you know in 3 of the last 5 seasons Miles actually played all 16 games?  Now I’ll admit some of those games to get to 16 he was banged up badly enough that it clearly affected his play.  Still perception on this guy isn’t always reality – as I watched him cover up his body, slide early at times, and drop a pass because he was worried about taking a shot – where most people probably thought ‘this brittle dude could get knocked out at any time”… I was thinking “well at least he’s trying to take care of himself.”

Miles Austin’s current ADP in a 12 team league is late 7th early 8th round.  He’s coming off the board after guys like WR Stevie Johnson and WR Antonio Brown.

Fun Fact: In 2012, Miles Austin outscored WR Antonio Brown in most non-Ppr and PPR formats.   Does that sound right to you?  Does it match your perception of this guy?

If you get Miles Austin as your fantasy football Wr #3 you’re ahead of the game, even if he misses a few games here and there…and if he plays more than normal you’ll be getting a high end WR 2 in the 8th round of fantasy draft!!

Fight your 1st thought, and look deeper on guys in fantasy football.

:by Mike

Podcast #4 2013: Injury and Rookies

We review major injuries and the rookies facing fantasy owners this year.

2013 Preseason Week 3: NY Jets vs NY Giants

NEW YORK JETS

Just when you think the Buffalo Bills had a bad preseason week 3 at QB, just when you think QB Mark Sanchez was the king of insane turnovers, and just when you think Rex Ryan and company couldn’t get any bat shit crazier…I present this game…and 1st up…

QB Geno Smith didn’t look like he was bothered by his previous ankle injury, and he started out with some nice safe one read throws- some out of the bootleg.  Heck on his 2nd possession Smith (aided by 4 defensive penalties) led the team down the field for a TD.  So what came after was baffling.  His 1st INT was just a lazy throw that was behind his WR just enough for the DB to make the play.  Most times that sort of pass is knocked away or dropped – but no doubt the throw was soft.

Then on his next series he threw another interception when he was faced with some pressure up the middle and he sailed a pass high over the middle.  The game just seemed to start moving too fast for him at this point – he’s not evolved enough at this point to deal with adversity in the pocket or to read defenses.

The 3rd Int about a quarter later was because Geno couldn’t see DE Justin Tuck drop back into coverage.  He was just flat out fooled and had terrible zone recognition as he tried to dump it short.

What do you do to top off 3 int’s?  Simple.  You” Orlovsky” that shit.  Sure enough in the 4th quarter – Geno overreacted to some simple pressure, inexplicably sprinted backwards toward the end line, stepped over it, and launched a ball while falling away that landed just in bounds on the sideline (so that even had he not stepped over the line, he would’ve gotten a safety on intentional grounding).

The game just seems too big and too fast for Geno right now.  And that’s ok, he’s a rookie.  He would benefit from sitting behind someone for a season or 2 – and then maybe he can look back on this and laugh.

So of course, the Jets – insisting there’s a QB competition, even  after this debacle send Mark Sanchez out there against 4 stringers?  I mean the only thing that could keep Sanchez from starting opening day after that is injury…so…

Yeah, you see where this is headed…

Sanchez’s injury will be one of the most over analyzed controversies of the preaseason.  As such you can find numerous takes on it-including the continuing absurdity of Rex Ryan’s press conferences.  So I won’t add much on that front – on the fantasy front it is actually horrible news – b/c Sanchez was at least looking like someone who could play the position.  Geno looks like someone too raw to do much of anything.   The 2013 New York Jets offense could resemble a tire fire.

RB Bial Powell who looked like he might actually upset Chris Ivory for the starting RB job, took a step back in this one…he was terrible in the passing game dropping 2 easy ones, before getting 2 for 18 yards, and bad in the running game 11 carries for 16 yards (with a 6 yard TD).  The Jets lack of a run game this preseason is alarming..”ground & pound”  may just wind up being “pound” beginning of the season – where pound = defenses pounding into them.

NEW YORK GIANTS

The highlight for the Giants came on their very 1st offensive play when RB David Wilson took the ball 84 yards down the sideline for a touchdown.  The play was blocked superbly and all he had to do was run through the hole and use his speed.  It didn’t showcase any great moves or vision, just speed.  And Wilson continues to represent a dilemma for me in ffl – as he seems to be a big play back based on speed- but he worries me in the boom or bust department.  Aside from his 84 yard run – he had 4 other carries for just 8 yards.  He also caught 2 passes for a net total of zero yards.  So overall, outside of the 84 yard run – he had 6 touches for 8 yards.

Wilson’s ADP has been moving up steadily all preseason and is now about the late 3rd, high 4th in 12 team leagues.  It’s not bad value, but from what I’ve seen if he doesn’t hit a big play during his day, he won’t grind out yards – that to me means he’s a risk pick.  So if you’re taking him, make sure the next RB at the position is a little more traditional in their output/workload – lower ceiling, but higher floor type of guy.

Defenses are so unpredictable that I very rarely make comments about team defenses….but, this if any is the year to pass on taking the Giants D in fantasy as a #1 team defense.  They have not looked good in the preseason, they have lost starter S Stevie Brown for the year and they play in a division with 3 potentially very good offenses.   At one point early in this game the defense committed penalties on 4 straight plays – their stat sheet for the game looks good because of Geno’s meltdown, but they are not a defense to invest in.

:by Mike

2013 Preseason Week 3: Buffalo vs Washington

BUFFALO

You know it was a rough day for the Bills when the best news of the day was that RB CJ Spiller came back from what initially looked like a bad leg injury.  As it turns out, it was only a cleat to the leg and a minor cut – Spiller checked back into the game and escaped without further problems.   Spiller remains a high 1st round pick in all formats, probably between 1.2 – 1.6

The Bills were not so lucky with QB Kevin Kolb who sustained a concussion- or something very concussion-like in this game.  There’s some talk out of Buffalo now that Kolb may retire – since he has had many previous concussions.  And with rookie QB EJ Manuel also sidelined with a knee injury, things at the QB position are down to QB Jeff Tuel who was an undrafted rookie free agent.

Tuel is not going to be an answer for them – he has a light arm, questionable accuracy, and (as with most rookies) problems going through his progressions.  Does he ruin the Bills offense for fantasy in 2013?  I don’t think so for a few reasons:

1st he shouldn’t be the QB that long, Manuel will probably be ready to go by week 2 or 3(if he can’t go week 1).

2nd Spiller appears immune to questionable QB play, since he is a rare combo of big play and workhorse – meaning that if the offense stalls, he could still rip off a 50 yard TD on reduced attempts.

3rd The passing game value does take a hit, but even if Kolb was ready to start the season, at some point Buffalo would be turning to a rookie QB in Manuel to play anyway, and that carries a lot of risk in itself.  So you shouldn’t have rated any WR’s or TE’s too high in your draft targets anyway.

WASHINGTON

While the Bills went with Tuel for most of the game, the Redskins countered with a rotation of QB Rex Grossman and QB Pat White.  White has been interesting this preseason and went from “camp body” to in a battle for the QB 3 job.  It’s just a nice story and doesn’t mean much for fantasy in 2013 and probably beyond.

The Redskins took their opening drive marched down the field and targeted WR Pierre Garcon twice in the redzone, connecting with him the 2nd time on a slant for a td.  Garcon has super upside this season and while his ADP is the 4th rd in 12 team leagues – he has a shot to outproduce that as a borderline fantasy  WR 1.   He’s someone you should target “sneakily” in drafts and def pounce on if you find him sitting there in the 5th or 6th rounds.

RB Roy Helu had 13 carries for 70 yards, and added 1 catch for 21 yards in what is becoming a very productive preseason.  The Redskins will find a way to use Helu this year behind Alfred Morris – so keep him in mind as a late RB stash in drafts, he could be a very nice RB 5 or 6 on your team this year.

:by Mike

2013 Preseason Week 3: Chicago vs Oakland

CHICAGO

RB Matt Forte looked great in this one: 6 carries for 76 yards,  2 catches for 33 and a TD.   Forte’s current ADP in 12 team leagues is bottom of the 2nd, top of the 3rd and I feel that’s fair value for a guy who has had health problems.  We discussed Forte a bit on our Mock Draft podcast (https://artofscore.wordpress.com/2013/08/24/podcast-mock-draft/)  where Tim and I go a little back and forth on him vs MJD.  He will lose some TD’s to RB Michael Bush as happened in this game (twice!!), but Forte’s total yardage and and value in PPR leagues make him well worth it.

WR Alshon Jeffery also looked good in this one with 7 catches for 77 yards.  We are all big fans of Jeffery here at artofscore, Ron in particular.  He was tackled at the goaline on one play – where…you guessed it…Michael Bush, instead of Forte ran it in.

OAKLAND

QB Matt Flynn had another bad week – and unlike last week where it was bad b/c he was hit a ton, this week it was bad because he looked lost.  3 of 6 with 2 int’s might be more painful than all the body blows he’s taken lately.   Don’t get me wrong Flynn still got pressured virtually all of his time and took some big shots – but Flynn is seeming to develop “happy feet” even when the pressure is relatively light.  To make matters worse – both of Flynn’s interceptions came from the pocket on badly thrown balls without pressure in his face.  And then we get after the game that Flynn needs to rest because he has some type of “tired arm” or general arm soreness.

Enter the QB Terrell Pyor and the hype that he can unseat Flynn.  Let me break down his 7 for 9  93 yard 1 TD and 4 carries for 37 yards and 1 TD performance for you.   He came in midway through the 2nd quarter – he went 3 and out after nearly throwing an interception that was dropped.   He then ended the half against a soft Bears zone d getting a decent completion.   And then it was Pryor vs the 2nd and 3rd string Bears’ d who were playing with a huge lead.  He made some good plays and some “bad” plays that worked out for him when he scrambled around tossed the ball up for grabs and somehow WR Rod Streeter came down with it despite getting knocked out on the play.

Pryor will not make it as an NFL QB long term – I have my doubts as to whether he can unseat Flynn. But I will say that what’s working in his favor is that it doesn’t seem that the Raiders can put a drop back passer in that offense without getting him killed.  So, Pryor may win this job by the default fact that he can scramble the best.  I don’t know, this whole thing is a mess…if fantasy points are to be found from the Raiders “passing game” they are going to be ugly, ugly points.

In fact, this is getting so bad in Oakland with the OL that I can no longer recommend taking RB Darren McFadden (did not play in this one) in the 3rd or 4th round of 12 team redraft leagues.  I was a tentative “buyer” on him during our “Sleeper” podcast (https://artofscore.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/podcast-2013-sleepers/)…but I cannot do it anymore after watching these last 2 games.  That OL is terrible, as a 5th round pick I could try – and if you’re in a PPR, the 4th round may work out…but right now his value is a little too high.

It was nice to see WR Jacoby Ford healthy enough to handle kick returns – long shot dynasty prospect only, they failed to really (1 carry for 8 yards) get him involved beyond that, but with his health returning who knows?   He’s back at least enough to get WR Josh Cribbs cut, Cribbs a talented player that never got as many chances to play “real” WR as he should have – probably has seen the end of his NFL career.

:by Mike