2013: Start ‘em or Sit ‘em Week 16

If you are still reading this, congrats.  You have made it to your championship game.   The whole ball of wax is riding on this one.

Good luck.  We will be with you this entire off season as well.  We will give you off season homework, podcast, draft reviews as well as a whole new look to the site.   Big changes are afoot.

Here are some non-obvious match ups that we like this week.

QB Start ’em –

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick
2. Alex Smith
3. Kirk Cousins
4. Philip Rivers
5. Ben Roethlisberger

QB Sit ’em –

1. Carson Palmer
2. Matt Ryan
3. Mike Glennon

RB Start ’em –

1. Lesean McCoy
2. Ryan Mathews
3. Frank Gore 
4. Reggie Bush
5. Alfred Morris

RB Sit ’em –

1. Stephen Jackson
2. Bobby Rainey

WR Start ’em –

1. DeSean Jackson
2. Keenan Allen
3. Pierre Garcon

WR Sit ’em –

1. T.Y. Hilton
2. Tavon Austin
3. Hakeem Nicks

TE Start ’em –

1. Greg Olsen
2. Charles Clay

TE Sit ’em –

1. John Carlson

Def Start ‘em –

1. Cinncinati
2. St. Louis
3. NY Jets

Def Sit ‘em –

1. Houston

Ron

2013: Start ‘em or Sit ‘em Week 15

 

Trying a little different format for the playoffs.  Let us know what you think about it.   Had some technical difficulties last night, so we were unable to get this up sooner. All is well now. Good luck in the playoffs.

Here are some non-obvious match ups that we like this week.

QB Start ’em –

1. Nick Foles – Ride the hot hand.  I see no reason why he won’t tear up the Vikings in the Metrodome.  The Vikings are tougher at home and still compete despite being out of it, but they don’t defend the pass very well.
2. Russell Wilson – I love this match up.  Giants defense has been playing the run fairly well the second half of the season. This will give Wilson plenty of chances to make plays.
3. Matt Stafford – He plays much better at home in the dome.  This game means a lot to the Lions in their quest for the NFC North.  If he doesn’t play well they don’t have a shot.  He plays well this week.
4. Guys I want to start, but I don’t have the balls to start.  Kirk Cousins and Matt Flynn

QB Sit ’em –

1. Eli Manning – In case you wanted to start the turnover machine known as Eli Manning against one of the best pass defenses, don’t.  It’s not a good move.  If they Giants have any success in this game, it will be on the ground.
2. Mike  Glennon – Ya he is playing well as a Rookie, but against a touch 49er D, even at home, I don’t see it turning out well for Mr. Glennon
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick – He is going to have all sorts of issues against the Cards front 7.  The line for the Titans is underachieving this year.  The Cards will exploit them.

RB Start ’em –

1. CJ Spiller – the Jags are playing good football, but they are still weak against the run.  I think the Bills get the run game going this week.
2. Eddie Lacy – The Cowboys run D is not good. Eddie Lacy is good, good and healthy.  Good for a big day in big D.

RB Sit ’em –

1. Deangelo Williams – Coming off an injury and going against a tough Jets run D is not a match up to exploit this week. 
2. Matt Asiata – Filling in for AP and Toby cant be easy and its not.  If you scored him on your waiver wire, cool that’s great.  No way in hell you start him.
3. Jets running game – I don’t like the match up for Ivory and Powell here. If you have to start Ivory, it’s understandable.  Just not a great start in this man’s opinion

WR Start ’em –

1.  Pierre Garcon – He and captain Kirk Cousins will hook up several times in this game.   I don’t like Atlanta’s secondary in coverage or tackling.  They might be the worst tackling secondary in the league. Lots of YAC for Garcon this week.
2. Golden Tate – If the weather stays reasonable. I can see Tate having a WR3/flex time of day.
3. Marques Colston – He has been playing very well as of late.  I like the match up vs the Rams secondary.  If Brees can get time, Colston will win his one on one matchups.

 

WR Sit ’em –

1. Michael Crabree – He is still working his way back to form. In addition to that, his ankle is wonky this week.   That, and Revis could be on him most of the time.  
2. Roddy White – I just don’t think he is healthy.  He might be getting old in front of our eyes.
3. Tavon Austin – He just doesn’t get enough touches for me to make him a start on my team.  He is a homerun swing.

TE Start ’em –

1. Martellus Bennett – Jay Culter strikes back.  Jay Cutler strikes with Bennett. Bennett exploits the middle of the field on a solid Browns Defense
2. Charles Clay – Hard to believe but Clay is almost an every week start depending on your team. He should have a good day against a depleted Pats D.
3. Jason Witten – His days of being in the fantasy elite are gone, but he is still solid and a good start against a slipping packers D.

TE Sit ’em –

1. Zach Miller – Who knows what you are going to get out of him week to week?   He is dinged up this week, so stay away from him.

Def Start ‘em –

1. Panthers
2. Rams
3. Chiefs
4. Cards

Def Sit ‘em –

1. Texans
2. Falcons
3. Raiders
4. Ravens

Ron

2013: Start ‘em or Sit ‘em Week 14 part 2

Sorry for the lack of detail this week.  Mike and I both had multiple personal things to attend to this week.

Here is Part 2…

If you have questions or hate mail hit us up on Twitter ArtOfScore

Good luck this week!  The playoffs are decided this week. If you are out of it, play spoiler and piss off your buddy.

Lions at Eagles

Sit ’em – RB Joique Bell:  He doesn’t have the success he had last week.  Desparation play.

Dolphins at Steelers

 Sit ’em – RB Lamar Miller: He played a little better than I thought he would last week.  It’s cold in Pittsburgh.  Not the best play this week.

Bills at Buccaneers

 Start ’em – RB Bobby Rainey:  Good flex start this week unless you have another guy you really like.  I think he can help this week.

Chiefs at Redskins

 Start ’em  – Chiefs Defense:  I don’t love this play this week, but i think they bounce back from 3 straight subpar games.   Not a dominate performance, but they play well.

Titans at Broncos

Start ’em – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick:  Think i am crazy?  Maybe.   Look at his stats the past few weeks.  He’s even more valuable if you don’t get penalized for turnovers.

Rams at Cardinals

 Start ’em – Rams Defense:  Not only do I like the way they have been playing, Carson Palmer is hurt. If he doesn’t play, Rams defense all the way. That rhymed.

Giants at Chargers

Start ’em – RB Danny Woodhead:I don’t think the Giants will be able to cover him out of the backfield.  Flex play.  

Seahawks at 49ers

 Sit ’em – TE Zach Miller:  He had a good game last week.  This is not a trend.  This is a one off.

Falcons at Packers

Start ’em – WR Jordy Nelson:  We love us some Jordy at the Art of Score.  We also love this match up.

Panthers at Saints

Start ’em – TE Greg Olson:  Saints sell out on the run and this leaves things open down the field.  

Cowboys at Bears

Start ’em – RB Demarco Murray: Say it with me… The Bears Defense cannot stop the run… again…

2013: Start ‘em or Sit ‘em Week 14 part 1

I broke this up into 2 segments this week.  Lots of great games this week and lots of interesting fantasy matchups.

If you have questions or hate mail hit us up on Twitter ArtOfScore

Good luck this week!  The playoffs are decided this week. If you are out of it, play spoiler and piss off your buddy.

Texans at Jaguars

Start ‘em – WR Cecil Shorts:  He has been playing well lately he also caught the game winning TD in last week’s game.  He is a low level WR2 or flex, but he has some upside.  I don’t love him this week, but depending on your team, he is definitely worth a start.

Vikings at Ravens

Start ‘em – WR Torry Smith: Remember last week when I said to start A.P. even though it was obvious?  I noted that he would run for 200 yards.  Well guess what?  He ran for 211.   I don’t feel quite as strongly, but I do think Smith is a great start this week.  Not 200 yards good, but a WR1 for sure.  Again usually we stay away from the obvious start, but this one is a very good matchup.

Sit ‘em – Any Viking besides A.P.: Their QB play is so bad and inconsistent it makes start any of their TE’s and WR’s a total crapshoot.   Do not unless you absolutely have to.

Colts at Bengals

Start ‘em – RB Gio Bernard:  Is a flex play this week.  He only got 15 touches last week and 14 of those were on the ground.  I figure that they will get him involved in the passing game more because of Andy Dalton’s recent struggles.   As he has been all year, he is a good flex play.

Browns at Patriots

Start ‘em – WR Julian Edelman: This has boom or bust written all over it. He is worth more in a PPR.  Starting him would depend on how your starting lineup is constructed.  You don’t want too many boom or bust guys in your lineup unless you understand the risk.  He is a WR3/Flex start.  Do you want to go for the homerun in Edelman or do you want to take a more conservative approach? As you know from following Edelman all year, he is streaky.

Raiders at Jets

Start ‘em – Raiders Defense:  The Jets’ offense has set back the forward pass 50 years or so.  They are not playing well at all Chris Ivory is the only real guy you can start with any shred of confidence.  No matter who plays QB this is a good start.  Not only are the Jets bad at moving the ball, but the Raiders are near the top 10 is fantasy defense this year.  It’s a surprise I know, but those are the facts.

Part 2 tomorrow…

-Ron

 

2013: Start ‘em or Sit ‘em Week 13

The second installment of this weeks Starts and Sits.   We have a full complement of games this week so you will have your whole roster.  Lots of decisions this week.  If you have questions or hate mail hit us up on Twitter ArtOfScore

Good luck this week!  The playoffs are decided this week. If you are out of it, play spoiler and piss off your buddy.

Buccaneers at Panthers

Start ’em – RB Jonathan Stewart:  With D-Willy’s quad in question, its looks like Stewart is in line for the carries this week.  Tampa’s D is no joke and are playing well, but its hard to sit anyone thats set up to get 15 carries.

Jaguars at Browns

Start em – Browns Defense: The Jaguars have been playing better lately and I think they have a chance to win this game, but they are not very good on offense. They are last in points and last in yards.  They are also playing in Cleveland and Cleveland has had a very good season on defense 4th in yards allowed.

Sit ’em – WR Cecil Shorts III:  Joe Hayden has had a great season, but he got beat   fairly regularly last week by Antonio Brown last week.  I think he comes back and has a game against Mr. Shorts.

Patriots at Texans

Start ’em – RB Shane Vareen: He is going to be a must start from here on out.   The Texans still have a very formidable defense ranked first in yards allowed.  Vareen transcends this and has a good game running and receiving.  He had 11 targets and 8 catches last week. Vareen also had 10 carries.

Titans at Colts

Start ’em – TE Colby Fleener:  He got a lot of garbage time yards and a score last week at Arizona.   I am not in love with him this week, but I think they can attack the Titans in the middle of the field.   This is a low TE1 start this week.  Starting Fleener will all depend on who else you have at TE.

Sit ’em – RB Trent Richardson: There is no reason to start him at all.  He is not playing well, he is not reading his blocks well.  He has shown me nothing at all.  I am sure you have better starts as a flex on your roster.

Bears at Vikings

Start ’em – RB Adrian Peterson: Of course you are going to start him.  He is A.P.  We usually stray away from obvious starts,  I just want to point out that he could run for 200 yards in this game if his groin is healthy.   The Bears run defense is laughable.

Dolphins at Jets

Start ’em – Dolphins Defense:  Man, the Jets offense has been bad.  Really bad.  I am not sure it gets much better at home this week.  The Dolphins defense hasn’t been great, but neither has the Jets offense.  It would depend on what you have as another defense, but they are worth a match up start this week.

Sit ’em – RB Lamar Miller: Mr. Miller has 27 yards rushing his last 3 games.  27 yards rushing total!  He has been a little better in the passing game as of late, but that isn’t saying much when you are comparing it to 27 yards.   Say what you want about the Jets.  Their defense is stout.  You never know, but I see him as a low level flex this week until he snaps out of this funk.  If you have to start him, I get it. I just don’t like the match up or production as of late.

Cardinals at Eagles

Start ’em – WR Michael Floyd:   With 13 catches and nearly 300 yards the past 2 weeks combined, Michael Floyd is having the season the Cardinals expected when they drafted him in the first round last year.  In addition, Carson Palmer is playing better.   No reason to not start him this week against an so-so Eagles secondary.

Falcons at Bills

Start ’em – Bills Defense: Man oh man.  What happened to the Falcons?  One play away from the Super Bowl last  year and now, they are circling the drain.  Sure they are playing in Toronto, but I just don’t seem them coming out and playing well against a Bills defense that is a top 10 scoring defense in most formats.

Start ’em – Buffalo Running Backs:  I would feel good starting either Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller this week against the Falcons.  I feel that they will pound the rock against the Falcons porous and poor defense.

Rams at 49ers

Sit ’em – WR Tavon Austin:  He is a really exciting player, but he doesn’t get many touches.  He only had 3 non-special teams touches last week.  Yes, is one rush was for a 65 yard touch down, but that can not be counted on week to week.  I think the 49ers defense has a plan for him.  If you don’t have a better play as a flex, go for it, but he is extreme boom or bust.

Broncos at Chiefs

Sit ’em – Chiefs Defense:  I know they are at home and all that, but Houston and Hali are both nicked up.  They are also playing Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos and these guys have a pretty great offense.   Its just not a good match up.

Bengals at Chargers

Start ’em – RB Giovanni Bernard: Gio has been pretty consistent this year points wise.  I see this game as a shoot out and Gio will be in the middle of it.  Both teams need this game badly. Gio will continue to be used more and more as the season goes on.

Start ’em – TE Ladarius Green:  After his big game last week,  the secret is out.  If Antonio Gates is out or limited this week, Green might be a sneaky TE play depending on your roster and health.  A great pick up in dynasty if he is sitting out there for some unknown reason.

Giants at Redskins

Start ’em – RB Andre Brown: The Giants are running the ball better the past five games or so, that much is certain.  What else is certain is that the Redskins defense is just not that good.  They play hard, but they don’t have the horses.  I would start Brown this week and not think twice about it.

Saints at Seahawks

Start ’em – Wr Marques Colston:   As a Seahawks fan, I am pretty certain that Sherman will be on Jimmy Graham.  With that Colston will be matched up against one of the young Seattle corners.  Colston is a wily veteran and should have a productive night.

2013: Start ‘em or Sit ‘em Week – Thanksgiving Edition – Week 13

Hello all and Happy Thanksgiving.

Here are some Starts and Sits for todays games.  The rest will follow later tonight and Friday.

Packers at Lions

Sit ’em – WR Kris Durham:  He was a nice story, but now that Nate Burleson is back and getting targets, his value takes a huge hit.  There are plenty of WR options out there and this is the time to employ one of them.

Sit ’em – : Packers Defense- They aren’t the worst start of the week, certainly. As a defense they get to the QB, but they give up a good amount of yards and points.  They are a Def2 at best.  If you have that other defense, this is the time to play them. Oh, and they are playing the Lions with the 7th ranked offense in Detroit.

Raiders at Cowboys

Start ’em RB Rashard Jennings – Ride the hot hand!  This Dallas defense is terrible and gave up over 200 yards to a Giants team that is average at running the ball.  The Raiders are 4th in the league  in rushing.  Dallas is 30th in defending the run.  I still can’t believe I am writing this, but start Jennings and feel good about it.

Steelers at Ravens

Start ’em – Steelers Defense:  This is a bit of a sneaky play this week, but let me explain.  The Ravens are 27th in the league in Rushing and 29th overall in offense.  They are inconsistent at best.  The Steelers are playing much better as of late.  The Steelers are a match up play.  If you have another defense with a great match up, go with that.  If you have the Steelers and are debating on what to do, consider this match up today.

Happy Thanksgiving

– The Art of Score

2013: Start ‘em or Sit ‘em Week 12

The playoff pushes for fantasy football have already begun, and now more than ever the pressure to decide who’ll be in your starting lineup weekly is going to build exponentially.  We’ve had a pretty good start and sit record this season -especially considering all of the players that have come out of nowhere (some who have faded equally as quickly).

So we present the following recommendations with the hopes that you’ll find something useful for your stretch runs.  We’ll try to avoid the more obvious decisions and give you options that maybe you weren’t thinking about, or steer you away from emotional decisions based on all too recent streaks.   As always if you have a question about a specific start/sit, get ahold of us we’ll be happy to help you out.

Saints at Falcons

Start ’em WR Marques Colston – Earlier in the season Colston was hurt and playing so terrible, that not only did he make Robert Meachem relevant,  but we here at the Art of Score suggested it might be time you cut him.  Well, Colston is back…sort of, over his last 2 games he’s produced 187 yards and 1 TD.  More importantly his targets have been at 6 or higher for 3 straight weeks now- and this means that he’s firmly back on the Brees’ radar.  Colston’s days as a #1 fantasy WR are probably over, but he makes a nice low end WR2 or Flex play tonight against a Falcons team that is mailing it in.  I’m not advocating stardom for the rest of Colston’s 2013, but he does appear to be a fantasy starter you can use down the stretch.  80 and a Td could be well within his reach this game.

Sit ’em QB Matt Ryan – Ryan’s team has been disappointing, and he has very few healthy weapons – so it’s likely not the type of year you, or he thought he would have.  Ryan’s last 3 games have produced 4 TD’s against 5 interceptions and he has cracked 250 yards just once in that time.   Without Julio Jones, even a recovering Roddy White isn’t enough to guarantee Ryan produces weekly – and against the Saints’ 3rd overall pass defense he’s too risky to start.   I’m not advocating you do something crazy like starting QB Matt McGloin over him this week, but if you have a reasonable backup QB like Big Ben or Eli – I would yank Mr Ryan from your starting lineup.

Jets at Ravens

Sit ’em RB Ray Rice: I know, I know we advised this last week and he had his best game of the season with 131 yards rushing and a TD.   That was also against the Bears’ 31st ranked rushing defense, and the ONLY time Rice has even had his combined yardage go over 100 on the season!  You want to try and sell me on the fact that he’s healthier now than he was earlier in the year, fine I’ll bite – a little, more like a nibble, more like a sample bite that I spit in a napkin really – but I’ll go with you at least as far as to say maybe they’ll be a week or 2 down this stretch that Rice will reward you for your pick.  But, it’s not going to be this week folks.  The Jets have the best run defense in the NFL, they just played a game where they limited fellow disappointment RB CJ Spiller to 6 yards on 13 carries, and for the 2nd time this season held him under 10 yards!!  They grounded the Bills rushing game under 80 yards total – and that was in a blowout that they lost.   If you have a RB on your bench that can get you 5 points or over, that guy is the call this week over Ray.   Now is not the time to get caught up in a feel good rebound week, bench him and look at it again next week.

Start ’em WR Santonio Holmes: This can be your risky upside Wr3 play this week, or potentially desperation flex play.  Before his injury in Week 4, Holmes looked to have developed real chemistry with Geno Smith and showed glimpses of his old WR1 potential.  Holmes had 71 yards last week in what was probably Smith’s worst game as a pro, so he’s clearly got the potential to produce even in this ramshackle offense.  It’s true those 71 yards came on only 2 catches, but it’s also true he was targeted 8 times.  He’s a much better play than Dolly Parton sized bust Stephen Hill, and with Kerley (arguably the team’s best WR this year) sidelined with his own injury issues – Holmes is the only game in town.  My bet is the Ravens’ 11th ranked run defense loads up to slow Ivory and Powell – and Geno is forced to throw.  It could still be ugly for Geno, but good for Holmes – like it was last week.  Take a chance as I’m betting on Holmes for 7-10 points this week in standard Non-PPR leagues.

Steelers at Browns

Sit ’em TE Jordan Cameron: Cameron has had a nice year, well above expectations, but the shine is starting to come off your new TE toy.   In his last 5 games Cameron’s targets have dropped from an average of about 10 targets a game to about 5 targets.  Granted some weeks like 2 weeks ago his 4 targets for 81 yards can still be very productive – but the truth is QB Jason Campbell does not have Jordan on his mind the same way Weeden and Hoyer did earlier in the season.  You want to tell me Pittsburgh has a bad pass defense, and that maybe the Browns will refocus Cameron into the offense this week?  That’s fine and perfectly plausible, but I think fringe guys like Coby Fleener, Garret Graham, and Delaine Walker could all outproduce him this weekend.

Start ’em RB Chris Ogbonnaya: I didn’t really believe the Browns would feature Ogbonnaya last week when I bet against him.  But against a tough Bengals’ defense he did manage to get 99 combined rushing and receiving yards.  Now he also had a costly fumble, which was returned for a TD – so I don’t know how long his leash will be (get it? Browns = Dawg Pound = leash?  eh, eh?), but there’s no denying his 14 total touches last game is a positive sign.   Pittsburgh’s defense is leaky, and their offense scores – so points may fly in this one, you’re going to want a RB that catches passes.  Ogbonnaya makes a high level flex play this weekend.

Buccaneers @ Lions

Start ’em RB Bobby Rainey: Be careful here, I’m saying that as much to myself as to any of you.  I liked Rainey coming out, and I thought his big chance would come when he was traded to Cleveland.  But the Browns thought waking Willis McGahee up from his crypt was a better idea, and when Rainey wound up in Tampa well I figured that was the end of it. 2 injuries later and we’re talking about him coming off a 30 carry 163 yard 2 Td performance!!  Rainey is talented no question, and hopefully the Bucs are smart enough to ride the hot hand here.  However, don’t get yourselves too worked up about Rainey in the short term, or the long term.  Long term the Bucs are not a great landing place for him with Martin and James ahead of him, and short term – he really will be a matchup play I think.  Now the Lions are 5th in the NFL against the run, but that can be a little misleading because Rainey is capable of participating in the passing game where the Lions are a pathetic 30th.  I think you have to start Rainey, but as much as I want to sound the horn to charge like a late season DeAngelo Williams circa November of 2008…I can’t recommend him yet as anything more than a low Rb2, or solid flex, until I see proof the Bucs won’t screw this up with Brian Leonard.  Start him over a disappointing player like Ray Rice this weekend – but let’s wait and see if he returns to earth a little.

Panthers at Dolphins

Start ’em – Panthers D: They are playing well and going against a depleted Dolphins line.  I don’t think they go crazy, but there is no need to bench them this week.  Don’t overthink it.  Play the Panthers D and expect positive results.

Sit ’em – RB Daniel Thomas: Thomas is a power back and this type of running doesn’t match up well with the strong front 7 of the Panthers.  Lamar Miller is the better play but only marginally better.  If you start him it’s out of pure desperation.

Bears at Rams

Start ’em – RB Zac Stacy:  The Zach Attack is back.  Follow my logic here.  Ravens were last in the league in rushing last week.   Last week they ran for 174 yards against the Bears.  They are God-awful against the run.   That might change once Briggs gets back, but as of now start any running back against the Bears.  Anyone that says their D is playing well is living of the myth of yesteryear.

Colts at Cardinals

Sit ’em – RB Trent Richardson:   He is averaging 2.8 yards a carry since coming over from Cleveland.  2.8 yards a carry!  He has no vision.  He runs into the line.  I mean he runs hard, but there is a lot more to an NFL RB than just running hard.  Trent your trend is bent; downward.

Sit ’em – RB Rashad Mendenhall:  He has done nothing all season.   Yes, he gets 10 carries a game.  I get it.  He does nothing with those carries.  Start someone else.

Titans at Raiders

Start ’em – RB Rashad Jennings:  Am I crazy?  Maybe.  Consider this, Titans have the 19^th best rushing defense.  The Raiders have the 5^th best rushing Offense.    He will also still get carries even if McFadden plays.  He also ran well the past two weeks.  That smells like a Flex start to me.

Cowboys at Giants

Start ’em –  WR Ruben Randle: He has been playing well.  The Dallas defense is one of the worst…things… I have ever seen.  It’s embarrassing.   Dallas will play and has been playing a lot of cover 3.  Underneath routes should be open and Randle has a game worthy of a WR2.

Sit ’em – RB Demarco Murray:  Giants run D has been playing well.  Look at the past 4 games and you will see that.  The Cowboys can’t/don’t want to run the ball.  Bombs away.  Start Murray if you have to, but be forewarned.  In reality you don’t need a warning.  If you have owned him all season, you know how disappointing he has been.

Broncos at Patriots

Start ’em –  RB Shane Vereen:  Bye week Troubles?  Start Vereen in your flex and you will be cured.  He will tear up PPR leagues the rest of the year.   No reason to sit this guy at all.  He is the kind of guy who can get on a role and carry your RB2 or Flex through out the playoff push.

49ers at Redskins

Sit ’em – QB Colin Kaepernick:  Colin, buddy, I know the ‘Skins defense isn’t very good.  But, the reality of the situation is that you are playing terrible.   This is a get right game for you.  There is no reason you should have a bad game here, but I don’t trust you.   I’ll take the sure points with another QB.  As I said, he should have a big game, but there is a lot of risk here.

*more to come*

-Mike and Ron

2013: Start ‘em or Sit ‘em Week 11

As always we try to stick away from the obvious “start Calvin Johnson” etc, but we are always open to fielding specific lineup questions if you leave them in the comments below.  In the same breathe, we aren’t going to tell you to sit Frank Gore because they are playing a team that has a strong defense.  That would be a waste of everyone’s time.

This week.  Two parts.  Thursday and then an update Friday.

Colts at Titans

Start ’em – Colts D: You think they are embarrassed after the egg they laid at home last week?  You’re damn right they are. I think they get after Ryan Fitzpatrick in this game big time.

Sit ’em Ryan Fitzpatrick: He’s a turn over machine. He is average at best. He is Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Sure he went to Harvard, but he’s still illiterate when it comes to reading a defense.

Jets at Bills

Start ’em RB Chris Ivory: The Bills are 22nd in the league in run D.  The Jets will pound the rock all game.  Ivory gets enough carries in this one to grab a starting spot in this week’s lineup

Sit ’em WR Stevie Johnson: After watching last week’s game, he and E.J. Manual are just not in sync.  The latest reports are that he may not even suit up for this one as he is struggling with a groin injury. I think there are better options at this point.  Keep an eye on this because if they start clicking, Johnson could be a WR3 down the stretch.

Sit’em RB CJ Spiller: Spiller is going to be a matchup guy for the rest of 2013.  It’s the disappointing reality you have to face with him,  and fooling yourself will only damage your fantasy team.  When the Bills played the Jets earlier in the season Spiller managed under 11 total yards of offense. He’s a little healthier now, but the Jets rush defense is just as formidable.  Plus Buffalo coaches were quoted this week as saying they view both Spiller and Fred Jackson as #1 RB’s.   Umm…nothing is good about CJ this week.

Ravens at Bears

Sit ’em RB Ray Rice: So here’s the deal.  The Bears are second worst in the league in Run Defense.  The Raven are 30th in run offense.  Something has got to give.  There is no way I am starting this guy anymore unless I have to, but if you have to, this is the week to do it.

Start ’em WR Alshon Jeffery:  In 5 of his 6 games, Jeffery has gone over 10 fantasy points in both standard PPR and non-PPR leagues, he’s topped 100 yards in 4 of the 6, and he was targeted an insane 18 times last weekend.  Dude is red hot, and now that Cutler will miss at least another week – that means Jeffery should remain high in the mix because Cutler sometimes only has eyes for Brandon Marshall…welp not this week.  Jeffery is a Wr2 this weeks and this is our little shout out for him maturing into the weapon we thought he was.

Browns at Bengals

Start ’em WR Marvin Jones:  Look up what Joe Hayden did to AJ Green the last time these teams met.  See? (7 catches for only 51 yards)  That is why you are starting Marvin Jones.  He will see an uptick in targets this week and is a WR3 start.

Sit ’em RB Chris Ogbonnaya: Word is the coming out of their bye the Browns would like to shift more of their workload to Obonnaya.  It makes sense since Willis McGahee is breaking down, and Chris can in theory catch passes out on the edge. Ogbonnaya isn’t bad perse, painfully average maybe, but the real problem here is the Bengals rush defense has a way of smothering players.  Obonnaya represents a very low flex play option this weekend – very low.

Raiders at Texans

Start ’em –  Texans D:  If Matt McGloin starts, Texans D all day.  If Pryor starts then the Texans are still an above average play – IF the team hasn’t quit amid all the turmoil (Kubiak stroke, Foster injury, terrible record etc) to me this is a fairly big sized IF…but you can’t anticipate them quitting until it actually happens so ride them this week and see how they play.

Sit ‘em – RB Rashard Jennings: He has had 2 good games in a row against bad Defenses.  Regardless of rankings, the Texans front is formidable.   I don’t think he gets the yards needed for an effective start in this one.

Cardinals at Jaguars

Start ‘em – Cardinals Defense:   OK.  Ya, I am recommending another defense, but let’s be real here.  The Jags O-line is average on their best day and the Cardinals can really bring the heat.   If the Cards get up by a 2 scores in this game look out.  They will pin their ears back and blitz like hell.

Start ‘em – RB Andre Ellington:  He is a virtually an every week flex start.  If he got in the end zone more, he would be surefire starter in all formats.  Mendenhall has been struggling all season, maybe finally Ellington gets the lion share of the carries.

Lions at Steelers

Start ‘em – Joique Bell: Now I don’t love this play at all.  It all has to do with injuries to the Lions WR’s.  Johnson has said he’ll play this Sunday and his knee issues are just maintenance, but Bell could be a nice flex option if the Lions get up early and need to control the clock. As Burleson won’t play this week either, the Lions could decide to keep it conservative with the lead.  This is a tepid flex start that could become hot if Megatron suffers a setback and can’t transform into a football player on Sunday.   

Redskins at Eagles 

Start ‘em – Yes, TE Jordan Reed and WR Pierre Garcon are every week starts from here on out.  Watch some of the games.  These are the only 2 guys that RG3 looks for. 

Start ’em QB Nick Foles: I called WR Riley Cooper last week, and this week I’m fully endorsing Nick Foles.  My Foles love was unrequited b/c the Eagles kept jerking him in and out of the lineup, and his concussion slowed things down. But you simply cannot argue with 16 TD’s and 0 Int’s….even the most skeptical of fans have to open their eyes at this point.  Foles is an every week starter as a top 10 fantasy QB the rest of the season.  Against a terrible Redskins’ pass defense he may very well be the highest scoring QB in week 10.   So if you’re someone choosing between “Nick Foles or”this week…it’s Nick Foles.  No question.

Falcons at Buccaneers 

Start ‘em – RB Brian Leonard:  I don’t love Brian Leonard’s talent at all, but he will get the majority of the carries at home vs an iffy Falcons D.  The Bucs Oline did some work last week against the Dolphins and Seahawks back to back.  Let’s make that three straight.

Sit ‘em – RB Steven Jackson: They say when RB’s lose it, they just lose it.  There is nothing gradual about it.   Steven, you have been awesome for many years, but I am afraid, you might have lost it.  If the line play improves there is hope Steven, I haven’t given up on you fully, but you aren’t a start until you show me something.

Chargers at Dolphins

Start ’em WR Rishard Matthews: A lot of people will look at last week’s 120 yard 2 Td performance by Matthews out of no where and think that they’ve missed their chance to hit that lotto ticket.   It’s true that Matthews has been virtually invisible since he was drafted 2 years ago.  But it’s my bet that Matthews is a better player than his limited playing time warranted, and now with the season ending injury to WR Brandon Gibson, I’m hoping that last week is the start of Tannehill looking for him often.  Matthews should be viewed as a very risky play week to week, but I like him here against a Chargers defense that is terrible against the pass.  (28th in the league).  I think Matthews could post another 100 yard effort – but the TD’s seem optional this week.

Start ’em WR Keenan Allen: Miami is not as bad as San Diego against the pass, but they have their holes.  In his last 5 games, Allen has broken 100 yards 3 times and has 3 TD’s – and this is more about saluting his effort than telling you something you don’t know: while a 40 yard dud like last weekend is possible every now and then, Allen has worked his way to low level WR2 at this point – and he seems an advisable start here.

Niners at Saints

Sit ’em QB Colin Kapernick: This isn’t an overreaction in my mind to last week’s disaster with Carolina.  Kap will probably have better #’s against a weaker Saints’ defense, but consider the Saints pass defense is ranked 3rd in the NFL right now.   Then consider TE Vernon Davis is still not taking contact in practice after suffering a concussion last week.  If Davis can’t go, or is limited – it takes an anemic pass offense and puts it on life support.   Kapernick will be able to get some of it back for you with rushing yards, but if the Saints say break the 20 point mark…how will the Niners try to keep up?   It’s fashionable to be down on Colin this season, and while it may not be his fault, and it may be overblown….I think this week you put him on your fantasy bench.   Hopefully brighter days are ahead with Davis getting healthier and maybe Michael Crabtree returning.

Packers at the Giants

Start ’em WR Jarrett Boykin: You may think that advising a WR from a team with its 3rd string QB on the road in his 1st full NFL start is risky.  Consider however, that QB Scott Tolzein managed to target Boykin over and over again vs the Eagles for a total of 8 catches for 112 yards.  The Giants defense is still awful, don’t let games against Josh Freeman, Matt Barkley, and Terrell Pryor fool you – they haven’t faced an NFL QB in a month.  Tolzein will probably get beat and beaten up, because he’s not any good at this point in his career – but just like against the Eagles last week there’s nothing stopping Boykin from juicy garbage fantasy time points.

Start ’em RB Andre Brown: In the preseason I was adamant that Brown was the better player than RB David Wilson – and here we are 11 weeks later- the Giants having gone through nearly that many RB’s, and it’s Andre Brown’s time.  Brown may never be durable, he may never break off a long TD run, but he can simply put his head down and move the chains.  Hopefully you followed our advice and picked him up off of waivers before last week when he came out for a 30 carry 118 yard 1 TD season debut.   The Packers have an above average run defense, but the Giants have to try and ride Brown because their passing game is just not clicking.  Brown will have even bigger days to come, but you can consider him a very high end flex play/low end RB2 this weekend.

 Chiefs Broncos

Sit ‘em –  WR Dwanye Bowe:   Regardless of the arrest, he was going to be on my sit list.  He has shown NOTHING all year.  Aside from some garbage yards, if the Chiefs are down early, I don’t see him producing much at all.  He hasn’t done it all year.  He isn’t going to start now.

Vikings Seahawks

Sit ‘em – TE John Carlson:  He had a career game last week.  He also played a Redskin D that is having problems with their pass D.   If you need to start him, I get it.  Times are tough in TE land.  Pursue other options unless you are stuck.   Last year Christian Ponder played in Seattle and he through for under 100 yards.   I don’t see why this game is going to be any different.

Start ‘em – WR Golden Tate:  Tate has been playing great the past few weeks.  He seems to have Russell Wilson’s confidence.  He is great after the catch and high points the ball as well as anyone in the league.  Regardless of Harvin coming back, Tate will be the #1 in Seattle for the rest of the year.

Pats Carolina

Start ‘em – RB Deangelo Williams:   Carolina is going to pound the rock all game.  DeWilly is going to end up splitting carries in this game, but he has the most speed of any of the backs in the Panthers backfield.   I would expect a game similar to last week.  Which is good for a flex start.

:By Ron & Mike

2013: Start ‘em or Sit ‘em Week 10

As always we try to stick away from the obvious “start Calvin Johnson” etc, but we are always open to fielding specific lineup questions if you leave them in the comments below.  In the same breathe, we aren’t going to tell you to sit Frank Gore because they are playing a team that has a strong defense.  That would be a waste of everyone’s time.

Why should you listen to us?  Look at our track record.  WE CALLED RILEY COOPER LAST WEEK!  If that isn’t enough to get you believing in this blog, nothing is.

This week there are a lot of obvious starts. Without  further ado…

 

Washington at Minnesota

Start ’em – WR Pierre Garcon:  my love affair with the man named Pierre continues for anther week.

Sit ’em – The Defenses: Neither are playing particularly well.  Unless you are in a bye week bind I would surely look elsewhere. At this point even carrying either defense on your team is debatable.

Seattle at Atlanta

Start ’em – WR Harry Douglas:  Small shifty WR’s give the big Seattle CB’s the most trouble.  I think he as an OK game.  Nothing great, but a solid WR3 start.

Start ’em – WR Doug Baldwin : He is a much better real life football player than Fantasy, but with Harvin and Rice out, he will have the opportunity to have a good game.  Also ATL’s defense is allowing opposing QB’s an over 100 rating. He and Golden Tate could do very well this game.

Detroit at Chicago

Start ’em – WR Alshon Jeffery : He is becoming nearly an every week Flex start.  I thought he might miss a step with McCown manning the control, but he didn’t. Who would have thunk that?

Sit ’em – Detriot WR’s other than Calvin Johnson: Look elsewhere unless you are in a bye week.   I dont think  Durham, Burleson or any other WR they trot out can produce consistently to deserve a start.  Only if you are in the most dire of situations.

 

Philadelphia at Green Bay

Start ’em – WR Jordy Nelson:  I think he will be the #1 target of Seneca Wallace.   He looked his way often last week and should continue to do so. With Rodgers he was a WR2, now a WR3/ Flex and still a solid start.

Sit ’em – Green Bay Def: Clay Matthews might be back but he will have a club instead of a hand. I have a feeling that the Eagles will put up some yards and points in this game.  Enough of both to make this a shaky start.

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Start ’em – WR Cecil Shorts: He is a better than average start this week.  Shorts has been dinged up and has been inconsistent.  This week, as the clear #1 in Jax, I think he sees a good number of targets in a surprisingly close AFC South Battle.

Start ’em – RB Shonn Green:  Now this is a bye week flex start, but the guy got 9 carries last week and scored a TD.  If you are in a bye week or injury bind, Greene will be able to help out.  If he is on your waiver wire, get him now because most pickings are slim.

St. Louis at Indianapolis

Start ’em – TY Hilton: Holy Hell, if you aren’t starting this guy yet do yourself a favor and start him.  Where have you been if you haven’t been starting him? WR2 with upside. Must start every week.  After this week you wont see him on this list because it will be elementary.

 

Oakland at NY Giants

Start ’em – QB Eli Manning:  He has been a turn over machine all year.   He hasn’t been good at all, but the Raiders are vulnerable.  See what Nick Foles did to them?  I wouldn’t expect that, but I would expect 250 and 2 TDs at the minimum.

 

Buffalo at Pittsburgh

Start ’em – WR Stevie Johnson:  E.J. Manual is back, Steelers D is terrible. I would expect a good number of targets for Mr. Johnson.

 

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Start ’em – QB Joe Flacco: Baltimore ‘s line is terrible and they cant run the ball.  What to do?  Air it out! No all-world DT Geno Adkins will help as well.

 

Carolina at San Francisco

Sit ’em – Panthers Def:  They have been awesome most of the year.  Going into SF is a tough task.  If you have a solid backup D, you might want to think about going with them this week.   If the Panthers can play well in SF, they become an every week start.

Houston at Arizona

Start ’em – Arizona Def:  The Cards blitz like hell. They are one of the highest percentage blitz teams in the league. Case Keenum is a nice story, but I think he struggles some  under the heavy pressure of the Cards D.

Sit ’em – RB Andre Ellington: I know he is a hot commodity and is playing well, but the Cards line is pretty terrible and the Texans line is pretty great.  Not the worst play as a flex, but he is at the most a flex play this week.

 

Denver at San Diego

Start ’em – WR Keenan Allen:  The Chargers are going to have to throw the hell out of the ball to keep up with the Broncos.  Allen will be the beneficiary. He is beginning to be a must start in all formats.

Dallas at New Orleans

Sit ’em – Saints Def:  The Cowboys put up numbers on all the teams they have played.  This game has all the makings of a shoot out.  I would avoid this unless you aren’t penalized for yardage.

 Miami at Tampa Bay

Start ’em – RB Mike James:  He is a flex start this week.  Miami has a tough D.  This much is known, but so does Seattle. I don’t think he has a monster game, but I think he has the coaching staff’s confidence to carry the load and that is important moving forward.

– Ron

2013: Start ‘em or Sit ‘em Week 9

As teams go through their bye weeks – so do we here at the artofscore.  With Ron’s vacation underway, our rollout schedule is a little behind.  So for this week, we’ll get you the Starts and Sits before Sunday, but *this page will be updated throughout the weekend as we complete matchup analysis*.

As always we try to stick away from the obvious “start Calvin Johnson” etc, but we are always open to fielding specific lineup questions if you leave them in the comments below.

Bengals vs Dolphins

Sit ’em WR Marvin Jones – I know, I know….what?!!! He just scored 4 td’s in a game?  You guys recommended picking him up weeks ago, and you’re very proud of that fact.  Both those statements are true, but so is this one…it’s likely that was Marvin Jones’ highest fantasy output of his entire career, let alone the 2013 season.  And this isn’t a strict bench advisory if you’ve got some WR 3 issues or bye issues, but this is a warning to temper expectations.  Thursday night games have a way of being  sloppy and low scoring- which isn’t the best environment for a guy that plays on the outside. He and Dalton have been heating up, but something is warning me this is a game where he dips and maybe is even held out of the endzone for the 1st time in 3 weeks.  I mean don’t start him just because you didn’t last week and got burned- it’s not going to happen to that degree again. I think a realistic expectation for him is around 5 catches for 65 yards and no score – which may be passable for you depending on what your situation is…but I’m cautioning against Marvin as a “must start” this week, he may have problems tonight.

Start ’em TE Tyler Eifert: Lost in the breakout that was Marvin Jones’ 4 TD reception day, was another near miss TD by Eifert.  Eifert is a guy that I think should be a potential star and for fantasy purposes the only thing holding him from top 5-10 Te status this year has been his infrequent targets by Andy Dalton.  I am hesitant to recommend Eifert regularly,  because Dalton usually looks his way less than 6 times a game,  but I just have a good feeling about him in what generally are sloppy Thursday night affairs. In these types of lower scoring games reliable TE’s usually see their target increase.  The Dolphins d is just 20th against the pass this season,  and I don’t see anyone being a matchup equal for Eifert’s big frame.

Sit ’em RB Lamar Miller: I like Miller more than most, and he has been averaging close to 5 yards per carry his last 2 weeks.  But the Bengals have the league’s 8th best run defense – allowing opponents under 4 YPC on average.  Miller may get some additional pass receptions in this one, but over 70 combined yards from scrimmage seems unlikely – and he probably won’t find the endzone either.   In no way is he a RB2 this week, and he may have problems being a solid flex or RB3 play.  I’d start him over guys like Peyton Hillis, Mike James, or Willis Mcgahee – but I’d also feel free to take a risk on some guys like Chris Ivory or teammate WR Rishard Matthews as a flex. Miller’s outlook seems pretty pedestrian.

Chiefs at Bills

Sit ’em RB CJ Spiller: This is my 2nd straight week of advising to bench CJ, and this week it looks like he really will get some playing time.   The problem is no one knows what sort of workload CJ is capable of at this point and he is the poster child for fantasy frustration this season. Particularly aggravating is that even when healthy Spiller cedes carries to Fred Jackson near the goalline, and I can’t imagine he sees more than 10-12 total touches in this game against a fairly stout (10th in the NFL for rush defense) Kansas City Defense.  I see Spiller’s upside as 6-8 points, which is generally disappointing for a fantasy starting RB.  Spiller owners who have a shot at the playoffs should hold Spiller on their bench until he shows he is healthy – those of you with only outside playoff hopes it may be time to start shopping him to owners that believe he will reboound.  I don’t see Spiller as a real fantasy factor for another 2-3 weeks.

Start ’em WR Dexter McCluster – McCluster’s career has been so inconsistent that I almost feel like the Chiefs were trolling us for a few seasons there.  He’s a RB, no he’s a slot WR, no he’s a punt returner, a wildcat QB, etc, etc, etc….McCluster is an above average talent, with a below average frame – so unlocking his true potential has been very difficult over his 1st 3 seasons.  I say strike while the iron is hot here.  In his past 2 games McCluster has around 140 total yards and a TD, which means he’s clearly in the gameplan weekly for KC.  Buffalo has the league’s 26th overall defense which should mean opportunities for McCluster to find space – and he becomes a solid flex choice this week.   McCluster has a history of disappearing (injuries, fumble issues) so he may not be worth starting for long – but he is trending upwards right now, which can help your team.

Falcons at Panthers

Sit ’em Steven Jackson: Jackson didn’t look completely healthy last week in his 1st game back since the 2nd week of the season.  In fact an 11 carry for 6 yard performance looks downright nasty. We remarked in the preseason how Jackson looked very slow and hurt, and we had hoped it was just a veteran going through those preseason “I have to be out here” motions.  Well he looks like that again, and against a Carolina team that ranks 2nd in the NFL against the rush he should find a seat on your fantasy bench.   Jackson will be very fantasy useful down the stretch, and I love the player – but like Spiller, he’s just not there yet.

Start ’em WR Ted Ginn:  This might be the riskiest of my advice this week, but I can’t help myself.  Ginn can be a devastating weapon when Cam Newton looks for him – and if Cam involved him in the game plan weekly you’d be looking at a solid fantasy WR2 option.  Unfortunately Cam likes to feed the mouth that is WR Steve Smith, and the Carolina running game, and some weeks even TE Greg Olsen – all before Ginn.  So you look over Ginn’s season and you see things like 10 yards,  60 yards and a TD, 70 yards and a TD, 70 yards,  20 yards, 30 yards, 80 yards….it’s pretty maddening.  In non PPR leagues Ginn is a top 30WR, averaging around 9 points a game….it’s just that those duds in between scare you off.  Against the Falcons who should keep the pressure on scoring wise, I think you start Ginn this week and he gives you a nice performance.  Just be aware of the disappearing risk.

Vikings at Cowboys

Start ’em RB Demarco Murray: I’ve never been a huge fan of Murray’s talent level,  but after watching the Dallas running game in his 2 week absence (RB Joseph Randle under 2 YPC) – it’s clear the team needs him.  Hopefully Murray’s return frees up Tony Romo to play better, as Romo has also somewhat underperformed without the real threat of the run.  I predict a heavy workload for Murray this week against a bad Vikings defense – so start him without hesitation this week.

Sit ’em all Vikings other than AP: And you likely weren’t going to start any of them anyway, but with the news that QB Josh Freeman is probably back under center in this one you can’t take a chance on any of the WR’s or on Kyle Rudolph.  This is a real shame, because the Cowboys pass defense is very susceptible to giving up all sorts of fantasy yardage, but the Vikings are the league’s 29th ranked offensive team – and they now have a QB controversy (reports are emerging that the locker room is behind Ponder as the starter).  Only the Rams and the Buccaneers are worse run NFL franchises right now-especially on offense (yes Jacksonville I’m giving you props up to 4th worst).

Saints at Jets

Start ’em RB Chris Ivory: Ivory burned me last week with a start recommendation, but that was against a stout Bengals run d. The Saints run defense is only 19th in the league right now, and Ivory appears these last 2 games to have finally (8 weeks into the season- when he was supposed to be the lead back in Week 1) won the early down role for the Jets. One factor from last week’s  game that worries me a little is that the Bengals were able to get up on them 14-0 in the 1st 3 drives of the game – which regulated the amount of time the Jets could even think about trying to run the ball.  The Saints offense could put the Jets in a similar situation again, but you have to think very early it will be about ball control with the Jets – and the Saints run defense is not near the level of Cincy to make the early stops.  I like Ivory this week as a high RB3 possibly even RB2, this might finally be the game he puts together yardage and a TD.  The Jets should be nice enough to try to get him in the endzone against his old team.

Sit ’em WR Marques Colston: Name value aside it’s very arguable that Colston should even be on a fantasy roster in standard size leagues.  You either keep starting him as a flex, or a bye week guy – or more hopefully, stashing him on the bench waiting desperately for something that looks like his 1st month of the season where at least he was getting 60 yards.  Colston may not be done as a player in the league, but something is wrong with him.  And the Saints have picked up on it -in his last 3 games Colston has yet to break 20 total yards!  While Colston used to be the 1st or 2nd option in the passing game he’s now clearly behind Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and then depending on the week Stills, Meachem, or Moore are also stealing looks.  Colston’s a better player than his output, but with the Saints philosophy already being to spread the ball around – and Colston clearly not a redzone priority (1 TD all season) – you can’t start him with any confidence.  I keep him on my roster for now, but if he posts his 4th straight game under 20 yards (even under 40) he becomes someone I look at for freeing up a roster spot.

Titans at Rams

Start ’em RB Zac Stacy:  I still think Benny Cunningham (out with injury these last 2 weeks) may be the better RB, but I have to tip my cap to Zac.  With Kellen Clemens as no real threat to anyone, somehow Stacy ran all over Seattle last week for 134 yards and a 5.2 ypc!  In 4 games since being named the starter Stacy has surpassed 70 total yards each time, and if he can somehow add a TD to that average you’ve got a mid-level fantasy RB2.  Stacy was banged up a little this week with a foot injury, but he’s been practicing and make no doubt he knows he can put a stranglehold on this job very soon.  The Titans are just 24th against the rush- so even though Clemens presents zero threat, and the rest of the Rams skill position players are among the most worthless in the entire league, and he’s a little hurt – Stacy is still a great option this weekend.

Start ’em RB Chris Johnson: This is just a vote of confidence to you Johnson owners. I know the news came out of Tennessee this week that they want to get Shonn Greene more involved (the Titans comical mismanagement on offense has them threatening the bottom Vikings, Rams, and Bucs) but let’s face it Chris Johnson doesn’t need a lot of typical rushing touches to be productive.  Last week against a good Niners d he only ran for 39 yards (on a semi respectable 4.3 average), but he still added 71 yards and a TD to that total with his receiving totals.  The Rams run d in prime time against Marshawn Lynch looked good last week – but remember the Seattle OL is very depleted right now, and overall the Rams rank just 22nd against the run for the season.  Don’t let the hype – either from the Titans, or the Rams d scare you off of Johnson for 2013 – he’s going to be a very good player for your team.

Chargers at Redskins

Start ’em RB Ryan Matthews: You would think there would be fantasy points galore in this game.  Neither defense is any good at making stops, and both offenses have decent if not superstar point producers.  I want to highlight Matthews for the Chargers, as his previous 2 games he went over 100 yards rushing and then got the bye to rest up.  We know Matthews history: injuries and fumbles.  Well he’s healthy right now and starting to run red hot against the 30th ranked Redskins run defense he’s a high end RB2 and absolutely a better play this week than some guys with better historical reputations like Steven Jackson or even Chris Johnson.

Start ’em WR Pierre Garcon:  Garcon, like RG3 has been a bit of a disappointment this season.  He still makes crazy catches and accelerates well after them, but as he put it best “We suck right now at passing”.   He’s been held without a TD for 3 straight games and has only broken the 60 yard barrier once in his last 4 games.  But, we know the drill with WR’s: complain and teams will usually try to force feed you the ball.  Against good defenses this could be a problem, but against the Chargers 26th ranked pass defense it’s likely Pierre gets his long awaited breakout week.  I’m not saying to expect the insane 143 and a TD he put up in week 2, but I would think he’ll be a redzone target this week for certain.  So if you’ve recently taken him out of your WR rotation b/c you’re sick of looking at him put up 6 points or so – now is the time to get him back in as a high WR2 this weekend.

Eagles at Raiders

Sit ’em QB Terrelle Pryor:  I know he just rushed for the longest TD in league history by a QB. But if someone from the Steelers makes a tackle after say 40 yards what kind of day are we talking about fantasy wise?  And that’s the thing, I feel like Pryor is on about 14:58 of his 15mins of spotlight.  His passing #’s over his last 2 games are hovering around a pathetic 52% completion percentage and he has 1 TD vs 5 Int’s during that span.  Pryor can’t really pass at the NFL level, and teams are starting to adjust to this, once his rushing yards drop to a semi-normal 40-50 yards per game you’re going to wind up with a below average fantasy QB (and a terrible real life QB).  We have probably made more wrong calls about Pryor being hot or cold than any other player all season, but I just don’t know how you can feel good about starting this guy right now.  Sure if you’re faced between a Case Keenum or a Jason Cambell, Pryor’s homerun upside is worth it, but against any midlevel producer like Alex Smith or Russel Wilson- I’m taking the safer guys all the time.

Start ’em WR Riley Cooper: In the 2 games prior to Nick Foles getting a concussion Cooper had over 200 yards and a TD.   Foles may be a little slow coming back from his injury (thus why I can’t go all in on him this week), but Cooper will still be one of his favorite targets when he gets back under center this week.  I feel like if Foles can stay healthy that duo will surprise folks down the stretch of this season – it’s not so much that Cooper is extremely talented, so much as it is that Foles is capable of involving his secondary WR options much better than Vick – or the insanely terrible Matt Barkley could ever be. Cooper makes a nice WR3 or very low end flex play this week – with a trend I think to be a very solid option in weeks to come.  70-80 yards could be a very reasonable expectation for him this weekend.

Buccaneers at Seahawks

Sit all Buccaneers except WR Vincent Jackson: And the only reason you can’t sit Jackson is because Glennon’s targets him at such a high volume there’s a nice chance for garbage production.   I like Glennon’s development but he’s not ready for Seattle’s 2nd overall defense in their own building – so this eliminates any of the passing game players (save Jackson and you have to expect a reduced day for him), and rookie RB Mike James has yet to break 60 total yards since stepping in for Doug Martin.  Our own Ron Brown will be there in person this weekend to lend his screaming voice to the throng – so there’s even other reason to bench your Bucs.

Start ’em QB Russell Wilson: No way around it, Wilson’s been a fantasy disappointment this season – with his OL beat up, Percy Harvin not available, and a run heavy gameplan, Wilson is probably hovering around the 10th-15th scoring QB in your league (which is not great in 12 team leagues).  I say don’t get too discouraged or overthink it, Wilson against lesser opponents is still a good- to-great starting option.  The loss of Sidney Rice for the season doesn’t worry me too much, because let’s face it Sidney Rice has been “just a guy” for 3 seasons now – Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse can handle that level of production.  Wilson will have a nice day against a below average Buccaneers pass defense, and he’s a clear start to me if you’re choosing between 2 QB’s and don’t have an elite guy this weekend.

Ravens at Browns

Sit ’em RB Ray Rice: Rice is quickly approaching RB3 level which is not something you want when talking about someone that was taken in the 1st round this summer.  The good news for a down season is that Rice has had an occasionally excellent week (like Week 5 vs Miami 102 total yards and 2 TD’s), and he’s had a bye week to get some much needed rest.   But here’s the bad news – Rice’s current season’s YPC is a horrific 2.8, and he has just 3 total TD’s through 7 games.  Rice looks like the “oldest” 26 year old to ever play the game,  and looks slow and beat up.  Some of  this is the general failure of Baltimore to run at all, as the younger and larger Bernard Pierce has also struggled.  It got so bad the team even brought in Beanie Wells for a change of pace (and poor Wells tore his ACL during the workout!) If your team can only start 2 RB’s and you have 3 options – Rice is a sit against tough matchups nowadays, if you have a flex spot or an RB3 you probably still have to take a chance most weeks with Rice – but it’s not looking like a dramatic turn around is imminent.  The Browns have a decent 11th ranked run defense and I’m no longer convinced that against a team of this level that Rice is a “must start”.  Consider other options this week.

Sit ’em RB Willis McGahee: Speaking of old and beat up, here’s a guy that’s actually both.  The Browns are sort of shuffling their backfield around constantly- and this combined with McGahee’s achy knees has resulted in him only getting an average of 9-12 touches a week.  Willis is simply not at the stage of his career where he can really produce with so few opportunities, and he doesn’t appear to be able to handle a 20+ touch workload (they did it once with 26 carries in week 5, and he hasn’t been able to recover).  I had hope McGahee would develop into a low end RB2 this season, but it looks like that hope is expiring quickly, and currently he’s a very low end RB3, and probably not an option if you have a flex spot (def not in PPR).  Keep him rostered for a few more weeks to see if he can get his workload back to normal for a starting RB, but keep him on your bench until he can cross that 15 carry mark.

Steelers at Patriots

Start ’em RB Steven Ridley – Few things in fantasy this year have been more perplexing to me than Ridley’s recent run to fantasy relevance.  Through his 1st 5 games of the season Ridley looked terrible running for over 50 yards just 1 time, and getting 0 Td’s.  He looked DONE.  TOAST.  EL FINITO.  Owners probably couldn’t dump him because he was likely drafted in the 1st 3 rounds of your league’s fantasy draft, and you were counting on him.  Well, inexplicably Ridley has rewarded any patience shown to him – as over his last 3 games he hasn’t once totaled under 50 yards, while piling up 4 Td’s.  Pittsburgh’s run defense – usually a hallmark, is well below average this season at 27th overall.  So continue to rely on Ridley this week as a RB2, and be glad the Pats have worked him back into their gamplans.  (IF YOU WANTED A GRONKOWSKI VERDICT = IF HE PLAYS YOU START HIM)

Colts at Texans

Start ’em RB Ben Tate: And here I am recommending a guy with 4 broken ribs, what a fantasy season this has been.  The Colts have a terrible run defense, (29th in NFL) and with Case Keenum as your QB – you have to think the Texans will try to establish the run.  Arian Foster (gametime decision), if he suits up will at best get 50% of the workload as (hopefully) the Texans won’t push him on a bad hamstring.  Even injured, and even if his workload is capped Tate makes a nice play this week as a flex, or even a very low end RB2.  I mean if you’ve owned Tate at all in your fantasy life you know that these are the types of conditions and matchups that you wait all year to play him in.  His points could fluctuate anywhere between 6-20, so as an upside lotto pick he is probably worth it over your bench full of under-producers or bye week starters.

 

:by Mike