2013 Preseason Week 3: Cincinnati at Dallas

CINCINNATI

So here’s something you don’t see everyday.  WR Brandon Tate had a 75 yard TD in this one on a punt return.  But that wasn’t the “real” story here.  The real story is that it came about on the 2nd attempt of the punt, b/c the 1st punt attempt by the Cowboys hit the bottom of their giant scoreboard/video screen (!!) and had to be blown dead (after review).  It’s too bad this didn’t happen in a real game, namely: that the house that Jerry built blew up in his face.

DALLAS

I hate talking about the Cowboys’ running game.  To me they are all a bunch of the same medium talent level dudes.  RB Demarco Murray – looked bad early on with a fumble, got benched came back ran hard, finished with 12 carries for 51 yards against the Bengals 2nd string defense.

But, the running game was pretty much opened up by the passing game (we’ll get to that) and Murray is not markedly all that much better than the guys behind him.   Add to that his fumbles and injury history and his current ADP in 12 team leagues of rd 3 or 4 looks like a compulsory pick with the theory that he’s not currently in an official timeshare.   To me a guy like RB Philip Tanner is  perfectly capable of replicating most of the things Murray does (although not the speed) – but he’s not worth drafting in fantasy unless an injury happens before week 1 – or if you’re in a particularly large league.  All of the Dallas RB’s – even Murray are “just a guy” – you draft Murray reluctantly because he has the lead job that could get you the carries – but you can’t be overly excited about it.

You have to be excited about the Cowboys passing attack however.  Everyone knows about the potential for WR Dez Bryant.  So what I can’t figure out is why QB Tony Romo’s ADP started so low…it’s starting to climb now into the high 6th round, but that may even be value there depending on your league rules.   This is a case where Romo’s real life struggles with crazy style turnovers and late season failures has sort of overshadowed his elite-ish fantasy output.

If you like Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Matt Stafford why not like Tony Romo?  Romo will be in a similar high production offense, with high attempts – has a similar below average OL working in front of him (with the exception of Russel Wilson in Seattle), and is surrounded by talented skill players.  I can make a good case that Tony Romo should go off the board even in the company of Cam Newton or Rg3 – Romo really does belong in the QB 5-7 conversation for 2013, and I don’t see it happening.  So before his ADP rises anymore based off his good preseason – it’s time to start planning on Romo as your “backup” plan at the QB spot.  If you miss a Cam or a Stafford – don’t worry pick another position there and target Romo in the 5th or 6th rounds.  He’ll be worth it – and best yet you’ll get to pair him with someone you took in the 2nd or 3rd rounds (instead of a QB) to help you out.

By extension this line of thinking also brings us to WR Miles Austin (4 catches for 59 and a TD in this one).  But “he’s made of glass” you scream.  “I know” I say – “and not even good glass – like the original I-Phone screen glass” you continue…“it’s a risk I admit” I reply….but here’s what I’m looking at….

4 of the last 5 seasons Austin has finished with 900 yards and 6 TD’s as his minimum.  In other season of those 5, he wasn’t on the field enough to get 900, but he had already 7 TD’s at that point to go with about 500 yards.

And did you know in 3 of the last 5 seasons Miles actually played all 16 games?  Now I’ll admit some of those games to get to 16 he was banged up badly enough that it clearly affected his play.  Still perception on this guy isn’t always reality – as I watched him cover up his body, slide early at times, and drop a pass because he was worried about taking a shot – where most people probably thought ‘this brittle dude could get knocked out at any time”… I was thinking “well at least he’s trying to take care of himself.”

Miles Austin’s current ADP in a 12 team league is late 7th early 8th round.  He’s coming off the board after guys like WR Stevie Johnson and WR Antonio Brown.

Fun Fact: In 2012, Miles Austin outscored WR Antonio Brown in most non-Ppr and PPR formats.   Does that sound right to you?  Does it match your perception of this guy?

If you get Miles Austin as your fantasy football Wr #3 you’re ahead of the game, even if he misses a few games here and there…and if he plays more than normal you’ll be getting a high end WR 2 in the 8th round of fantasy draft!!

Fight your 1st thought, and look deeper on guys in fantasy football.

:by Mike

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