Category Archives: Detroit Lions

2013 – Week 7 Waiver Add/Drop

So, last week we told you to grab QB Nick Foles, RB Zac Stacey,  and RB Andre Ellington – to go along with our exemplary record of grabbing guys before the rush in your league is on (in weeks even older than that we advised WR Josh Gordon, WR Justin Blackmon, WR Keenan Allen, TE Jordan Reed etc).  You may not have a chance at any of them now, but if you do pull the trigger…if not…it’s time to read along here and start taking us seriously.  Feel free to go back and read our waiver advice to look for names that may still be available in your league – we are going to go ahead and assume you want “brand” new guys this week.

As always what we’ll do here is make recommendations on 3 levels. Level 1 guys are so obvious that they were either drafted in your league on draft day already, or you will have to fight with other owners over them on the wire. Level 2 guys are decent risks that may not always pan out, but more of them may be available in your league to serve your purposes.  And finally level 3 guys are more of the longshot homerun guys – but if your need is great, or if you play in a deep league – these might be the only guys you have a chance at….

Level 1

WR Percy Harvin – We recommended Harvin last week, and have had good success watching Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon be picked up right before their successful season debuts.  Harvin is a different case coming back from major injury, but you still can easily afford to drop someone for his homerun potential.  The new rumors are Harvin will be ready in 1-2 weeks, and even if it takes 3-4 weeks picking him up before he comes back is an excellent idea.  yeah you don’t know what you’ll get with him, but he’s a dymanic top 10 fantasy WR when ready to go.  It’s not a lot to ask to cut the last guy on your bench for him.

RB Brandon Jacobs – We have recommended just about every Giants RB this season as a pick up, including Jacobs about 3 weeks ago.  If Jacobs is still on your league’s waiver wire be prepared to fight for him this week.  He’s a little banged up, and David Wilson may be back sooner than expected from his neck injury…but when you look at the RB’s we’re going to recommend for level 2 this week there’s no harm in going in for Jacobs – he’s the lead back in NYG for as long as he’s healthy and the only back to run well there all season.  It may be a very short window, but Jacobs could produce RB2 numbers during these critical bye weeks.

TE Jeff Cumberland – Cumberland is only this high because we’ve been talking about him for weeks, and this is really the last time I want to mention him. With Kellen Winslow suspended for 3 games, and Santonio Holmes still nursing an injury Cumberland could even improve on his play that for the last 3 weeks has looked like 34 and a TD, 79 and a TD, and just this week 59 yards.  Cumberland may struggle to be a full TE1 for you, but if you recently had an injury to Jimmy Graham, or Owen Daniels – or have a very inconsistent TE like Kyle Rudoplh , Cumberland is worth a pickup to rotate in based on matchups.

TE Jordan Reed – Exactly the same as Cumberland, sick of mentioning him – he should be owned.

Level 2

RB Joseph Randle – Randle will be involved with Demarco Murray on the shelf for a game or 2.  Randle to me is no special talent, but Jerry Jones reportedly really likes the kid and in Dallas that still means something.  I expect Randle to be a mid level flex play while Murray recovers – he’s only worth a chance if you specifically need RB help, and is not worth passing on  WR or TE or QB that you may need.

RB Chris Ivory – Oh how times have changed for Ivory.  In the spring Ivory was considered a fantasy sleeper back with a lock on the Jets’ starting RB job.  Well someone forgot to set his alarm clock, b/c after weeks of playing with injury and running poorly Ivory appeared to be no better than the RB3 on his own team.  Well with RB Mike Goodson lost for the year, Ivory once again becomes a potential factor in the Jets offense.  He is a tease no doubt, a solid brutal runner – an injury prone Marshawn Lynch perhaps – but if some owner let him go over the past few weeks and he’s on your waiver wire there is still a chance Ivory could regain the starting job in NY by the end of the season.  Admittedly, this would take a drop off in play by Bilal Powel, but hey….MUCH stranger things have happened.

WR Jacoby Jones – Jones played his 1st game since Week 1 of the season this weekend and responded with 2 catches for 42 yards and a TD.  Jones will be a frustratingly inconsistent fantasy player as he is every season, but there’s little doubt Baltimore missed his veteran presence and his targets should increase as he gets even healthier.  A potential WR 4, or Wr3 during your bye weeks.

RB Khiry Robinson – Very quietly Robinson is running hard in New Orleans.  This past weekend he took 7 carries for 53 yards and a TD, while again filling in for the Mark Ingram role in that offense.  Robinson’s week to week value will be challenged by how many touches he gets vs Pierre Thomas, and then when Ingram comes back from injury – he will have to fight the former Heisman winner for playing time….so this is sort of a lotto ticket.   But, I am betting the Saints will let Robinson have Ingram’s spot when they finally judge the 2 head to head.  Ingram really has been that bad as a pro.

Level 3

WR Kris Durham – For some reason know only to the mind of Matt Stafford, Durham has taken on the role of secondary WR to Megatron that seemed clearly marked for Ryan Broyles.  While Burelson remains sidelined it’s possible Durham remains fantasy relevant, but with Calvin Johnson getting healthier his targets seem destined to remain low.   In deep leagues he’s worth a pickup for a few weeks as a desperation play and nothing more.

QB Thaddeus Lewis – Miss out on bad real life/good fantasy QB Terrell Pryor?  Well for a month or so this guy might be Pryor 2.0.  Lewis seemed to have the deep ball in his arsenal over the weekend, as well as mobility in the pocket.  His average pass per attempt was only 6.8, so we can’t get too excited…and further complicating matters was his “mild” foot sprain injury he confessed to having after the game. Monitor the status of his injury for week 7 before making a claim on him, but if you are deseperate at QB, Lewis to me is worth a look over a guy like TJ Yates on your waiver wire – who has already proven he can’t do the job.

WR Jarret Boykin – James Jones is out for a game or two, Randal Cobb is out for more than a game or two.  Boykin is next in line in a good passing attack, he’s probably only a 1 or 2 game rental at this point….but those can be very valuable this time of year.

TE Joseph Fauria – His value is massively overinflated right now, so don’t pass up players like Cumberland and Reed at the position just because this guy scored 3 TD’s over the weekend.  Fauria is the ultimate boom or bust play having just 7 catches in 6 games with 5 of them for Td’s.  Odds are you can do better, but if you can’t pick him up and play him only when your other TE is hurt or has a terrible matchup – the fact is you just won’t see his awful TD dances enough during the season to make him reliable.

DROPS

RB Mike Goodson – Suspension and now season ending injury.  I suppose if you own Goodson in a dynasty/keeper format you can take some solace in the fact that he beat out Chris Ivory for a spot before going down.  But, even long term in 2014 and beyond I would bet against this guy doing much of anything.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – although Jake Locker doesn’t look like he’ll suit up for week 7, new reports say he may only be a game or two away.  Fitzpatrick played a tough Seattle defense last weekend and struggled, and now gets the 49’ers as a reward in week 7.  He hasn’t played very well, so if you were desperate and picked him up hoping to catch lightening in a bottle – well that plan has short circuited.  Time to release him for the next flyer at the position.

:by Ron/Mike

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2013 Week 4 – Waiver Add/Drop

Well, if you’ve been following us and our advice on add drops – you’re going to know that 3 of this week’s higher waiver adds in standard leagues are guys we recommended either last week or the week before.  So if you’re looking for why you should pick up WR Josh Gordon or WR Santonio Holmes after their monster weeks – well, good luck competing with your entire league for them.   I tried to warn you last week 🙂  Similarly, albeit with less authority I am not going to bring up RB Brandon Bolden as a potential add this week – b/c I advocated him in deeper leagues during week 1.  He gets a bump to Level 2 type of guy this week.

As always what we’ll do here is make recommendations on 3 levels. Level 1 guys are so obvious that they were either drafted in your league on draft day already, or you will have to fight with other owners over them on the wire. Level 2 guys are decent risks that may not always pan out, but more of them may be available in your league to serve your purposes.  And finally level 3 guys are more of the longshot homerun guys – but if your need is great, or if you play in a deep league – these might be the only guys you have a chance at….

Level 1

RB Fred Jackson – I believed in CJ Spiller more than most, I bought the hype.  Fred Jackson just continues to hang around though and look like the better runner.  Spiller is flash and talent – Jackson is a plodding workhorse – but for the Bills after 3 weeks Jackson seems to be what they need.  Spiller is banged up a little right now (and I’m not advising Spiller owners to panic), but even when healthy Jackson gets meaningful work.  3 games is a large enough sample size for this guy to be owned – so if somehow he’s available in more shallow leagues…pick him up.

RB Bilal Powell – Powell was likely drafted in your league, but maybe some owner got frustrated with him and tossed him out.  This is the time to get him, because with Ivory hurt for the 1,000th time in his career,  Powell has job security and is producing.  Powell is a lot like Fred Jackson – he seems to be a plodder, but unlike the hype for his backfield mate,  Powell is producing quietly and fighting for every yard.  The Jets offense is not going to light teams up most weeks, but Powell could start for your team as an RB2 if you’re having issues at the position.

WR Kenbrell Thompkins – Thompkins appears to have beaten fellow rookie Aaron Dobson for playing time and for targets.  Most importantly he seems to have shaken off an erratic week 2 and will remain in the Patriots’ plans.  He needs to be owned in all leagues, and if someone else hasn’t done it – it should be you based off his future potential as a high end WR3.

TE Heath Miller – Quietly Heath Miller is returning to action for 2013.  His 3 catches for 35 yard debut may have also gone unnoticed in your leagues….just as I’m sure people forgot that in 2012 Miller had over 800 yards receiving and 8 Td’s.  I know Pittsburgh’s offense is bad, Miller is slower, he may have to block more etc…. but the fact remains Miller and Big Ben have a chemistry together over many years and the Steelers will be throwing the ball a lot this season.  Pick Miller up if you need TE help – put him on your bench for a week or two more and then in under a month you may have a top 5-6 TE  week to week.  That’s a good deal.

Level 2

RB Jason Snelling – I’m a buyer of this guy on the news that Steven Jackson may be out another 3 weeks or more.  Snelling is just a better RB than Jacquizz Rodgers and he may get more goalline work than him before long.  Rodgers may be owned in your league, or even higher on some’s waiver priorities – use that to your advantage and take Snelling as a potential flex play.  Then, you can laugh while Rodgers gets tackled for a -1 loss every 3rd time he touches it.  Snelling won’t light the fantasy world on fire, but with Jackson out and older – by year’s end Snelling could become a very viable flex or bench player for you.

RB Jonathan Franklin – Ugh, here we go again with Green Bay’s backfield.  Look here’s what we know – Ed Lacy will be back in the picture as early as this week.  James Starks was slated over Franklin, and Franklin had a late game fumble against the Bengals that pretty much cost Green Bay the game.   Now here’s what works in his favor: he’s healthy.  Starks has a knee sprain and may be out multiple weeks, Lacy will be back but coming off a concussion, so it’s tough to see him getting the lion’s share of the workload right away.   So for at least a few weeks Franklin will have an opportunity to work this thing into a full time split.   So the question you need to ask is do I need to ride this situation long term?  Do you believe Franklin will beat Lacy out for touches by the end of the year?  I don’t – but if you need a flex play for the next 2-3 weeks in a bad way….then you might as well try this lotto ticket.

WR Nate Washington – Washington had a big day in Week 3 with 8 catches for 131 yards, more importantly he seems to have taken the Wr1 role in Tennessee (from Kenny Britt – who we advised you last week to drop in standard size leagues).  The Titans are not going to light it up very often, and Kendell Wright and Justin Hunter are young players the team will want to take looks at (and targets toward) – but Washington clearly has a role and that means some measure of weekly production.  He’s worth an add if you’re currently unhappy with your WR3 or Wr4 situation and are willing to deal with some inconsistency.

WR Davone Bess – We’re big fans of Bess here at the artofscore, but it’s only really this week that he becomes worth consideration for a roster spot. For one thing, Brian Hoyer shocked us all this weekend – and looked a little competent (more on him below), and the bigger factor is that with the Browns supposedly shopping Greg Little and Josh Gordon, Bess could be a defacto WR1 by season’s end.  He has already beaten Little out for the Wr2 job.  Optimism for the real player is capped a little by Hoyer and the rest of the Browns offense which for now includes Josh Gordon and TE Jordan Cameron – who will probably account for 80% of the Browns’ passing scores going forward.  But in the end, Bess could be a very consistent Wr3 especially should Josh Gordon leave town.

Level 3

TE Jordan Reed – Reed may not have officially beaten out Fred Davis for the starting TE job in Washington, but the writing is on the wall.  Reed is currently banged up so check on his status before making the add, but this is more of a long term buy anyway.   Reed has looked much better in the offense than Davis, and while the 2 may oscillate looks for a few weeks – Davis is on the last year of his deal, and as the team falls out of contention Reed should take more and more of the work – as he already seems more dynamic.  He’s an add if you’re desperate for a 2nd TE, and a guy like Heath Miller isn’t available…maybe by the end of the year he’s more than that.

QB Brian Hoyer – Over 300 yards and 3 Td’s.  Shocking.  One of them was a game winner!  Lost in the celebration (rightfully) of Cleveland backers this week is 2 fold..1 Minnesota’s pass defense was awful, they may wind up being in the bottom 5 in the league this year.  And 2ndly, we need to see it again before we add him for fantasy.  Hoyer has no dependable history and despite the performance had some troubling signs – like the 3 Int’s he threw.   If he struggles against better defenses can he even keep the job?  Has he even won it?  Brandon Weeden is not in favor in Cleveland for sure, but will the Browns put him back in to showcase him for other teams, or to give him a last chance to advocate for his roster spot in 2014?  These are questions that are very legitimate and not to be swept under the rug of Hoyer-mania….if there is such a thing.  Anyway, in very deep leagues I suppose Hoyer is worth an add as a backup fantasy QB, especially with guys like Terrel Pryor getting hurt etc..but in most leagues we need to see it at least twice to make him worth a pickup.

WR Ryan Broyles – I love Broyles’ talent and his situation, I just hate his knees.  Broyles was finally used in a game this weekend and is working his way slowly back from injury.   He looked quick and strong, and remains my pick to easily out work Nate Burleson by the time the season ends.  In average leagues you may not need to grab him this week – just monitor him….but in deep leagues the time to grab him is before he’s played too many games and shown too much of his comeback. (Edited on the news that Nate Burleson has broken his arm – Broyles is now a high level 2, or low level 1 add for this week – b/c he will be the 2 WR almost immediately in the wake of this news)

WR Terrance Williams – I don’t particularly like Williams as a talent, but very quickly he could be in a very good situation.  WR Miles Austin is battling again with his hamstring…and even though right now he’s not scheduled to miss time, with his history that’s not a good sign for him.  For Williams if Austin were limited or out that would be pretty fantastic considering Dallas’ upcoming opponents are horrific against the pass:  Chargers, Broncos (the one tough matchup), Redskins, Eagles, Vikings, Saints, Giants, and Raiders.   I mean look at that schedule! You’d start anyone starting against those teams right?  Well Williams may be a starter for some or all of them and this will be a chance to buy low on that speculation.

RB Bryce Brown – McCoy got dinged up on Thursday night, and he came back fine….but the lesson should not be lost.  Bryce Brown is talented and would step into a fantastic situation should McCoy have to miss time.   If he’s not owned in your league based off this speculation, it may be time to add him.  I just don’t know how Chip Kelly’s high volume offense is going to affect his players after say the season mid-point. Will he burn guys out, or expose them to injury risk?  I’m not selling the Eagles short here, I’ve been impressed…but the questions about health will begin to creep in.   Brown could be your insurance or your lottery ticket.

Players to Drop

TE Fred Davis – Jordan Reed has cut into his passing looks, and even Logan Paulsen saw time Sunday as the inline blocker TE over Fred, while Fred was “hurt”.   Davis may be hurt, but I’d say it’s not only due to injury that he’s sliding down in playing time.  Those who drafted him thinking he had top 10 position potential – I agreed with that.  I no longer agree, even if Fred holds his starting job I have a tough time imaging Washington will use him if they continue to lose b/c Davis is on the last year of his deal (something that at the start of the season could’ve been very helpful to him) and they will want to see more of Reed in the attack.   Davis’ shot at even being a top 15 TE this year look bleak and there are likely better options on your waiver.

RB James Starks – From add one week to potential drop the next – these are the days of our Greenbay Fantasy Football Lives.  If you are desperate at RB in a deep league keep him, otherwise it’s time to move on.  Starks is injured (again) and now with Jonathan Franklin emerging and Lacy returning it’s tough to think of him as any more than RB3 on his own team.

TE Brandon Pettigrew – Much like Fred Davis, Pettigrew looks lost and unused in this offense.  Hell, he played this week against Washington and had the same # of catches as Fred Davis who didn’t play.  Think about that.

:by Mike