2014:Random thoughts: Fantasy uncertainty – FA Week 3

All these situations are very fluid as you all know.  Between, the remaining FA, trades and the Draft, things can change in an instant, weakness become strengths.   However, at this point, this is how we see it…

WR’s

Who is catching passes in Carolina?   Beats me.  Beats the Panthers.  As of press time today, the biggest FA that has been signed is Jericho Cotchery.  Let that sink in.   Brandon LaFell is in New England.  Steve Smith has been jettisoned and is now in Balitmore.  Ted Ginn, who had a resurgence last year with the team, was left to test the market and landed in Arizona.   Now I am sure there is some sort of contingency plan in Carolina, but legitimate options are getting slim.  How is Jason Avant not on speed dial?  I mean, fantasy implications aside, he is one of the best slot WR’s in the league and could be a great addition and safety blanket for Cam.  Sidney Rice?  Miles Austin?  Trade for DeSean Jackson?

With Miles Austin still on the FA market and set to not return, look for Terrance Williams to have an increased role.  The salary cap is tight in Dallas.  Only WR’s willing to accept the veteran minimum are options here.

The #2 receiver role in Cleveland, KC, NYJ, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville are still very much up in the air.  In Pittsburgh, Markus Wheaton could be the man to replace Emmanuel Sanders.  Mike Brown might be the guy in Jacksonville with Justin Blackmon suspended indefinitely.  Jeremey Kerley is looking like the #2 WR on the Jets with Stephan Hill in the doghouse.  Greg Little and Donnie Avery are not going to cut as #2’s  in Cleveland and KC respectively.  I could easily see all of these teams drafting at least one WR in a deep WR draft.

Where is DeSean Jackson going to end up?  According to ESPN’s Sal Palantonio, “Jackson’s act has worn thing with Chip Kelly”  A big cap number presents an interesting situation in the city of brotherly love.  If I am Carolina, the Jets, KC or Oakland, I am definitely asking about this guy.

Since the draft is so deep at WR this year,  I  could see some of the older veteran WR’s being signed after the draft.   It would be prudent for teams to try and address needs via the draft and fill in the holes afterwards.   This not only financially beneficial, but it keeps the team young and, in most cases, they retain the rookies rights longer.

RB’s

Chris Johnson- He is being paid way more than his production is worth and is on the trade block.  I don’t think anything happens until after the draft.  I know that fantasy players don’t want to hear this, but I think he will be most effective in a time share situation regardless of where he goes.

Latavious Murray – I really can’t believe that McFadden came back to the Raiders.  He took a very modest one year deal.   He has to prove he can stay healthy.   If Murray can impress in training camp, he could secure the #2 RB role in Oakland and be a very valuable handcuff moving forward.  That, however, is a long ways off.

Maurice Jones Drew- MJD wants more money than the market is willing to bare at this point.  I  have read that he wants 3.5 mill. a year.   I still think he can be an effective player.  Like most players at this point in their career, his situation will have a greater bearing on his value than his skill level.

Giants RB situation – Well, this is an interesting mishmash of players.  Rashad Jennings was signed in FA, played well for the Raiders down the stretch last year, but has been nondescript for much of his career. The Giants still have David Wilson  who is coming off of neck surgery his value and career is up in the air. They also resigned Peyton Hillis. Picking up another RB in the draft would not surprise me at all.   Training camp will be needed to sort this mess out.

Jags back up? – This situation really surprised me.  I did not see Toby Gerhart going there.  As of now Jordan Toddman and Denard Robinson are the top backups.   I cant see the Jags going to the season with such shallow depth.  keep and eye here for opportunity.

Muddled in Phily? – McCoy, the newly traded for Sproles, Chris Polk and Bryce Brown combine for a muddled situation in Phily.  McCoy is one of the best players in the league, but i can see Sproles cutting into some of McCoy’s touches. The back up situation is anyones guess at this point.  If McCoy was to go down, his back up, at this point, is non-defined.  McCoy is still the man, but with four quality backs, his touches could be curtailed.  Good news for McCoy’s career and bad news for fantasy owners.

Back ups in Chicago and in Minnesota – Both teams have top-level starters and both teams have let their back-ups go.  These are handcuff situations to monitor.  Dynasty leagues wise, I would pay attention to what both do in the draft here.

Stefan Taylor Vs Jonathan Dwyer – Who is the power back that replaces Rashard Mendenhall who retired this off season?  These are the two candidates.  Keep taps on this situation throughout the offseason as the winner could garner 10-15 touches once the season picks up.

QB’s

Cleveland – After missing out on Matt Schaub, the Browns seems destine to be drafting a QB early.  Brian Hoyer is the only legitimate QB on the roster.  He played well for the few games he was in last year, but is coming off of a torn ACL.   I could really see them brining in another vet at some point to help fortify a questionable position.

Jacksonville – Believe it or not, there are several scenarios where the Jaguars don’t draft a QB in the first round.  Chad Henne is not a world beater, we know this. The Jaguars brass knows this and will not reach for a QB when the team still has needs all over the place.  Henne is adequate enough for the WR’s of Jacksonville to be draftable at this point in the offseason.

-Ron

2013 – Week 14 Waiver Add/Drop

It’s getting thin and most rosters are locking out soon.   This will be out last of the waiver wire pick ups section.  We will have thoughts moving forward more directed and dynasty and keeper as some of the younger players get looks for the teams that have fallen out of playoff contention.

As always look at our past waiver wire updates for players that still may be available in your league.

Next year, we will work on another format to keep track of previous weeks  waiver pickups  in a useful way for our readers.

Drops

You might want to consider dropping WR Percy Harvin.  I am not sure how much he is going to play and if he does, he probably isn’t worth the start.   This was a homerun swing type pick up, sometimes you win sometimes you lose.

You also might want to drop RB Brian Leonard.  He hasn’t gotten many touches since Bobby Rainey’s big game 2 weeks ago.  There isn’t much out there, but there isn’t any room on my team for a guy that doesn’t get the ball.

WR Michael Crabtree –we told you have him on your radar and pick him up the past few weeks.  If you did, you are sitting pretty with a nice WR3 with upside.  If you didn’t, you will have to battle the rest of the league for him.

WR Andre Holmes – He isn’t worth much in a redraft league at this point.  He is worth a flier in dynasty if you have the roster spot.   Pay close attention to him in the next few weeks.   Not a must pick up, but a guy to keep an eye on in dynasty

TE Ladarius Green – Well we told you to start him last week.  If you listened to us, you were rewarded.   He had a nice game.  He also played 91% of the offensive snaps.   That bodes well moving forward for him.  If he is still out there in your league, He is worth the pickup, especially if you are weak at TE.

Raiders Defense – We aren’t crazy.  They are playing the   Jets this week.  The Jets are playing some of the worst offensive football I have seen since the 1992 Seahawks.   This is a good match up play this week.  If you are looking for a little juice for this week’s game  and your playoff push, look to Oakland!

– Ron

 

2013 – Week 13 Waiver Add/Drop

Listen, if you read this blog, you know we know our stuff. Go back and look at our track record.  We have called out waiver wire picks weeks before those “other sites.”  We do not state the obvious.  We do the work and you get the results.

The wire is thin as usual at this time of the year, but there are always opportunities.  Even if you are out of it, pick up a player to screw a playoff bound owner.  Play Spoiler, remember fantasy football is supposed to be fun!

 

WR Tiquan Underwood – Last week’s game came out of nowhere as Underwood had games of 8, 6 and 2 points the past three weeks since Mike Williams has gone down.  I am not really sure how much you can expect out of him moving forward, but he is a pick up that can fill out the back end of your roster for the play off push.  Hopefully his 3 catch 108 yard and 2 TD performance spurs him on to bigger and better games.

RB Dennis Johnson – Ben Tate has been banged up and last week those injuries may have caught up with him.  He ran only 7 times for a whopping one yard. Johnson’s 87 all-purpose yards and 15 touches last week should get him more carries moving forward.  Who knows, with a little luck, maybe he carries your team into the playoffs.  As of now, he is a low level Flex, but watch him.

QB Mike Glennon – I am always leery of adding rookie QB’s to my fantasy rosters.  They are wildly inconsistent and I don’t like dealing with their ups and downs.  However, Glennon is bucking that trend. He has played remarkably consistent and is giving solid production.  He is viable QB2 in most leagues and even worth a spot start moving forward.

WR Michael Crabtree – I have no idea what he is going to provide you moving forward.  He is all the way back from that Achilles injury? Will he and Kaepernick have the same chemistry as last year?  I know none of this.  I do know that he is active and he is returning to a WR needy team.  He is worth the risk to pick up. Hopefully you grabbed him already if not grab him now and sit him.  Wait a week.  If he looked good, you can evaluate him based off of that.

WR Julian Edleman – Buyer beware here.  I am only recommending this as a desperation pick up. He is too inconsistent to be relied upon week to week, but he has the ability to blow up.  He is a boom or bust play every week.

RB Benny Cunningham – I can’t help but think of the show “Happy Days” when I hear Benny’s name. However, Ron Howard, Tom Bosley and Henry Winkler cannot carry the ball as well as Benny Cunningham has. Mike has been on him all offseason as an undrafted rookie out of Middle Tennessee State.  Zac Stacy went down and Benny stepped up.  13 carries and 107 yards.  Impressive, but it was against the horrendous Bears run defense. If he gets the start for Stacy, he is a flex start depending on match ups.  If he is a backup, he is worth rostering, but carries substantially less value. If he starts, it will be happy days for you as an owner.

 

-Ron

2013 – Week 12 Waiver Add/Drop

Listen, if you read this blog, you know we know our stuff. Go back and look at our track record.  We have called out waiver wire picks weeks before those “other sites.”  We do not state the obvious.  We do the work and you get the results.

This time of year the waiver wire is thin.  This much is certain.  However, there are opportunities for you. At his point in the season, there are team owners in your league that have given up.  This will reduce the number of teams in play for waiver wire transactions. I can’t say this for all leagues, but for some, this is very possible.  Our view is to never give up. Be a spoiler. Beat your friends.  It’s fun to steal a player or knock your buddy out of the playoff race. Some don’t subscribe to this idea.

Did you pick up Bobby Rainey like we told you last week?  If you did you would have been rewarded.

FYI if you didn’t see “A Football Life – The Forward Pass” on the NFL network.  Watch it.  I am no slave to hyperbole, but it’s amazing.

Reread previous weeks post in the Waiver Wire section.  There may be players still sitting out on your leagues waiver wire that we talked about weeks ago.

WR Michael Floyd – He has probably been on and off rosters all season.  He had a monster last week, over 190 yards.  He is wildly inconsistent and is nowhere near a sure thing.  However, if you are searching for a WR.

WR Jericho Cotchery – Here is another guy that has been sitting out in your league on and off all season.  Recently, he has garnered more consistent playing time.  This has resulted in increased productivity. If Emmanuel Sanders is dinged up this week, he could be a sneaky WR3 play.

QB Matt McGloin – This guy torched a pretty good Texans secondary.  He is  an undrafted rookie.  In fact, he wasn’t even signed after the draft, he had several tryouts just do get into a camp.  He was 18 for 32 for 197 yards and 3 TD’s No ints.  I wouldn’t get crazy here. He is a low level injury or bye week replacement, but desperate times call for desperate measures.

Buffalo Bills Defense- Crazy right?  Depending on your scoring format, they are around 10th in the league in points.  At this point in the season, they can be a great matchup play if you choose wisely.  Get ready for this. They are leading the  league in interceptions with 16 and have 37 sacks that leads the league.   They are probably better than one or both of the defenses you are carrying.

-Ron

2013 – Week 11 Waiver Add/Drop

Listen, if you read this blog, you know we know our stuff. Go back and look at our track record.  We have called out waiver wire picks weeks before those “other sites.”  We do not state the obvious.  We do the work and you get the results.

This time of year the waiver wire is thin.  This much is certain.  However, there are opportunities for you. At his point in the season, there are team owners in your league that have given up.  This will reduce the number of teams in play for waiver wire transactions. I can’t say this for all leagues, but for some, this is very possible.  Our view is to never give up. Be a spoiler. Beat your friends.  It’s fun to steal a player or knock your buddy out of the playoff race. Some don’t subscribe to this idea.

Keep an eye on guys coming of off injuries.  Michael Crabtree is one.  Philosophically, you will want to get these injured players a week early, otherwise you will be battling the rest of your league for them.

Reread previous weeks post in the Waiver Wire section.  There may be players still sitting out on your leagues waiver wire that we talked about weeks ago.

WR Rishard Matthews- He had a monster game 10 catches over 100 yards and 2 TDS.  You will be battling most of your league for him this week, but you can’t argue with his production. Now the trick is if he can put up points consistently.

RB Bobby Rainey – Mike and I have liked this guy since last preseason when he was with the Ravens. I am not sure why he keeps getting cut.  He was given an opportunity to play last week because of Mike James injury and he showed what we saw two years ago.  Now, because he is a smaller speed back, I wouldn’t expect a lot of TD’s, but I could see him as a flex option moving forward.

WR Junior Hemmingway – Because Dwayne Bowe likes to smoke the herb and drive around suburban K.C. Junior gets a shot.   I have no idea how this will impact the Chiefs, but I do know that they are looking for production out of their WR’s and Hemmingway could work his way into the rotation if he can produce with his opportunities.

WR Andre Roberts – Here is a guy that is hot and cold.  I don’t think he has received the opportunities he has in the past, but I do like him especially if Mike Floyd is out this week. He might only be a one or two week replacement, but at this time of the year, the waiver wire is thin.

TE John Carlson – Well I wouldn’t expect much week to week from Carlson, but if you are in need of TE help, he is out there in your league. He is an average TE2 until further notice.

WR Tavon Austin – Here is another WR that you will be battling the rest of your league for on the waiver wire.  Honestly, his production up until last week’s game was weak.  There was a reason he was on the waiver wire.  He is worth the pick up if you need a WR, but please temper your expectations with him.  He is not going to score like that very often.  In fact, I wouldn’t expect him to do that again this year.

-Ron

2013 – Week 10 Waiver Add/Drop

Listen, if you read this blog, you know we know our stuff. Go back and look at our track record.  We have called out waiver wire picks weeks before those “other sites.”  We do not state the obvious.  We do the work and you get the results.

At this time of the year, the waiver wire gets slim. if you are in a smaller or shallow league, look back at our posts from the past few weeks, those guys might still be out there in your league.

The playoff push begins now!

RB Andre Brown – He is coming back.  We told you to get him last week, if he is still there get him now! He could be inline for some serious carries if David Wilson is out even longer.

WR Mike Brown – Another Brown here.   Justin Blackmon is suspended and  Brown is the next man up.  He has been fairly impressive on his limited opportunities thus far. 13 catches for 226 and a TD.  In this offense I don’t see him more than a WR4, but at this point in the season when the waiver wire is bare he could be worth the risk.

WR Jericho Cotchery – He is probably still out there in your league.  He has been very inconsistant and has had inconsistant opportunities, but he did  have 3 TD’s last week.  It wouldnt suprise me if he cut into Sanders or Antonio Brown’s workload some.  I mean, Brown was benched for part of the 4th quarter last week.

RB Shonne Greene – He received 9 carries for 38 yards and a TD last week. If he is finally healthy, this could be the type of workload to expect moving forward.  Very much a depth kind of pickup, but in this RB thin part of the year, he may be worth the roster move.

RB Rashad Jennings – Firstly, he is McFadden’ sback up so he should already be on your radar. Secondly, he had 176 total yards and a TD last week.  Yes, this was mostly in garbage time, but he still put these numbers up. As long as he is starting for the injured McFadden, he is a boarderline flex play.

Browns Defense – They are sitting out there a little over of half the leagues.  Now that the offense is functioning at a reasonable level, there is no reason not to pick this team up for your playoff run.  They have a great front 7, Joe Hayden, and a great defensive coordinator.

-Ron

2013 – Week 9 Waiver Add/Drop

So it seems like every week I’m able to say we’ve gotten a sleeper for you (if you’ve followed our advice) that likely won your week or even saved your season.  We told you about TE Jordan Reed (and then reminded you) before anyone knew he was on pace to be fantasy’s 3rd overall TE.   WR Terrance Williams was our choice before he was the star’s. We told you about RB Andre Ellington before he became the only RB to own in Arizona.  We advised you to pick up Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon prior to their triumphant returns from suspension…. as well as making literally dozens of other correct calls over the previous 8 weeks.

Last week we advised most of you to go and grab WR Marvin Jones – all he did was go out and drop 4 TD’s on the world this past weekend.

So look we have a really good track record at this – but now as the season passes its midpoint there will be less game changers and options on your league’s waiver wire.   Also, with Ron on vacation some of this site’s content will be in “lite” mode this week.

And with these 2 factors in mine I present a scaled down version of our Add/Drop – without our normal leveling system.  I am just going to list some players and their potential benefits to your team.  If the last month is any indication 1-2 of these players will really impact your team.

WR Percy Harvin – Like with TE Jordan Reed this is your last warning from us to get this guy.  And as with Gordon and Blackmon the time to get him is before he is ready to play a down – because once his 2013 season debut kicks off that’s it.  Average size leagues likely still have him available, and again we know it won’t be for 2-3 more games, but Seattle just lost WR Sidney Rice for the season- they need a playmaking WR and Golden Tate just used up all his TD’s this weekend.  When Harvin comes back he will be the clear focal point of Seattle’s passing attack.  There is no one sitting out there on waivers like this – too much potential to not pick him up and wait.

RB Andre Brown – I’m sort of grouping Harvin and Brown together.  Brown has far less potential than Percy as a player – but in fantasy I’m actually pretty hopeful for him.  Brown is due to return from injury likely as soon as the Giants get back from their bye in week 9.  Here’s the current state of the NY Giants running game: David Wilson started the year fumbled a hundred times (I rounded up) got benched, then got hurt in the neck – which is always a difficult injury to predict.  The Giants cut D’arrell Scott then resigned him 50 times (I rounded up) to where he’s currently cut.  Rookie Michael Cox sucks his own last name, and Brandon Jacobs had the best night of any Giants RB all year and then promptly got hurt.  This means when Brown returns his primary competition for starter’s carries will be Peyton Hillis.   Hillis had an ok game vs the Eagles (90 total yards), but he walked in off the street and isn’t exactly durable himself.  Brown is younger and more talented than Hillis, and hopefully soon he’ll be just as healthy.  Get Brown while the Giants are on bye this week – then in 2-3 weeks laugh as you think about how a starting RB was just sitting there quietly on your waiver wire.  As with Harvin make us stop reminding you multiple times – just go and make your move already.

WR Dexter McCluster – McCluster’s 3.5 year career has been a case of talent without opportunity.  I’m not gonna argue the Chiefs have completely figured out a way to keep McCluster involved (or even upright) – but he is trending in the right direction since switching from RB to WR 2 seasons ago.  Instead of grooming McCluster to be a change-of-pace homerun style rb, and instead of making him a typical downfield slot WR, the Chiefs are settling on a nice compromise (finally) of working Dexter as a major part of their short yardage passing attack.  It’s perfect for McCluster’s ability to quickly accelerate underneath and work with dump offs.   Last week he was targeted 10 times, and in the last 2 games he’s had about 140 total yards and a TD.   In a PPR league McCluster is probably must own right now for his potential as a flex play, but this does come with some caution: McCluster has disappeared before, so you are sort of placing some faith in the Chiefs to keep him in their plans.   Right now, I’d make that gamble.

WR Rishard Matthews – Matthews is a little deeper grab than McCluster, but I like his talent.  Brandon Gibson’s season ending injury (before which we recommended picking him up and he got a very early TD before going down) has opened up a job for Matthews.  Matthews in my mind is as talented or moreso than Gibson, but the issue here is chemistry with QB Ryan Tannehill.  Matthews got 6 targets last week in 3/4th’s of a game after Gibson left – if he sees 6-8 targets a week he will be a borderline flex play or Wr3, but if he develops more of a relationship with Tannehill as the season continues and his targets are 8-10, than we’re talking a Wr3 play or solid flex play especially in PPR.

RB Deji Karim- Here’s your uber longshot of the week.   I don’t even know if Karim will play a down of football this season – but with starter RB Arian Foster and top back up RB Ben Tate injured right now for the Texans, it’s possible that at least for a few weeks one of the 3 players the Texans brought in for RB depth becomes a fantasy factor.  Of the 3 – Ray Graham, Dennis Johnson, and Deji Karim- I actually really like Johnson’s talent best.  But Karim is a veteran of the league better suited to have an all around NFL ready game (pass protection etc), and Karim was sort of the leader of the 3 during the Texans preseason (until Ciere Wood stole the gig- and then smoked it away).  So here you are in the middle of the week, you don’t know if both Foster and Tate will miss action, you know Karim is no fantasy factor if they both can play, and you have doubts about him producing if he’s the just the backup to any one of them individually.  But, he should be the 1st one they turn to if they have to – both of the guys in front of him have nagging style injuries (hamstring, ribs) which could mean time for Deji in some form for multiple weeks.  And let’s face it the Houston run game makes people productive – if you have the bench room add him and see if this develops into a spot where a role player on a real team becomes a RB2/3 on a fantasy team.  Oh yeah, and dump him for Dennis Johnson if Johnson gets in and shows any sign of life 🙂

RB Jonathan Stewart – You thought I was gonna say RB Mike Tolbert didn’t you? Well I say, take your pick.  Tolbert has been a little hot lately – scoring 3 TD’s in the last 3 games, and last Thursday totaling 64 yards to go with a TD.   But, Tolbert’s value is dependent on the Panthers  being up, and most times being near the goaline.  Jonathan Stewart is due back from injury in the next game or 2 (so the Panthers say), when he comes back he will undoubtedly eat into Tolbert’s fantasy value – maybe even to the point where Tolbert loses his precious goalline work.   So you have Tolbert who is just a solid guy, and Stewart who is more talented, but has proven so brittle in the past…and that they both will see time if active with DeAngelo Williams….it seems like something every owner should avoid.  And you should…except well, in it’s easy to say “you don’t want that guy- too much risk”, but in reality, when you play in leagues with 10-12 teams you are going to have issues, you are going to need to take chances on guys for starts or flex plays, or bench depth.  And for that both of these guys are in play….if you’re struggling now and need a RB to help spot start or take RB3 or flex value…Tolbert could be your guy for a few games.   If your team is sorta set up well at RB right now and you have a roster spot to speculate…why not grab Stewart (if someone like Andre Brown isn’t available)?  Stewart is the only one of the two with a chance to win starter quality carries, and again may even get those valuable goalline looks if he stays upright.  Both Tolbert and Stewart are worth considering, but only Stewart has that true “sleeper” potential – albeit it with much more risk.

:by Mike