Tag Archives: Adds and Drops

Post Draft Rookie Positional Rankings: TE

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When looking at the rookies from a fantasy perspective, there is no silver bullet.  With any scouting, whether it’s fantasy or real life, there is a lot of subjectivity.   You would think with the amount of advanced statistics available you could mitigate the risk by using metrics. Though useful, they are only part of the equation.  Maybe there is a magic algorithm somewhere in the ether that will eventually reduce this to a numbers game.  Until the string theory of scouting is discovered, I use this.

Tape- What does he look like on tape? TV, youtube etc… Did he dominate?  Was he running people over, making people miss and running by them?  Do these skills translate in to the NFL?

Situation- How many players at his position are in front of him?   What are their skill levels? Age? Years remaining on their contracts?  Salary cap concerns?

Talent- How did he measure up in the combine and pro day?  Did he dominate on the field? Does he have a unique characteristic that can make him successful? Is he too small to be anything more than a 3rd down back or are his hands so bad he is only a 2 down back?

Scheme- What scheme is he playing in?  This is not always an absolute, but you should have idea of what type of offense he is in.  Does he fit what the team wants in a RB?  How does this scheme impact the player?

Run/Pass Ratio- How much do they pass?  How much do they run?  Be careful with this one.  EX. Drafting a WR4 on Seattle is not going to help you much unless you feel he can become more than a WR4 down the road.

Preseason Games – This is where you can tell a lot about what the team thinks of the player, how they will use him and how he stacks up against NFL competition.  Be careful watching a player going against 2nd and 3rd string players…

These rankings are slanted towards Dynasty Leagues

Ebron, Eric  – Lions   

He is probably the most athletic TE in the draft. However, he isn’t Vernon Davis, so please don’t compare him to Davis athletically. Fantasy wise he is in a good situation in Detroit, but not great. There are several unknowns. For one the offense IS NOT THE SAME AS LAST YEAR. There is a whole new offense that will be more balanced. I would not expect 600+ passes again from this team. If they did, it would be a big upset. There are already two competent TE on the team in Fauria and Pettigrew. Neither are world beaters, but I can’t foresee either giving up their position without a fight.   As I recollect back to the Colt’s offenses of the mid- 2000’s, there was a lot of 2 TE offense or “12” personal. In that, one of the TE’s, Dallas Clark, was the “Joker” or detached TE(the one that lines up in multiple positions and doesn’t block much.) I would imagine this is what Ebron will become. Even with all the weapons around him, I think he can be a very effective TE in this offense.

Seferian-Jenkins, Austin – Buccaneers    

The big get bigger. One of the tallest receiving corps in the league just got taller. ASJ adds yet another redzone threat to 6’5” Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. Jenkins is probably the most complete TE in the draft and this could allow him to start earlier than his one dimensional counterparts.   He has size and speed. The Jeff Tedford offense should play into his strengths. The only thing I worry about is the amount of touches he will get with all the talent around him. His long term prospects look very good.

Amaro, Jace  – Jets     

He can’t block a lick, but he won’t be asked to block. He could be Geno Smith’s or Mike Vick’s best friend this season. Jets have an inexperienced WR group behind Decker and Kerley. Amaro will have to beat out Jeff Cumberland for some PT, but they are two different types of TE’s and should be able to coexist in “12” personnel.

Fiedorowicz, C.J – Texans     

This guy reminds me of Health Miller. The offense they are running here is still a bit of a mystery.   I can’t say how Ryan Griffin and Garret Graham come into play, but as of now, they are in front of Fiedorowicz. I don’t see him ever being more than a TE2 in most formats.

Rodgers, Richard – Packers

Here is a solid player in a very good situation. Drafted in round 3 so he will get an opportunity here. Buy low.   If J. Finley comes back healthy, his value takes a hit.

Others to watch…

Leonard, A.C. –  Vikings 

I loved this guy on “Saved by the Bell.” Talented, but troubled. Kicked out of Florida for domestic violence arrests. Clean record for past 2 years at Tennessee Tech and productive.   Norv Turner and he could be dangerous.

Jordan, Reggie  – Jaguars

Weak competition in from of him, Pass catching TE from a small school.

Gillmore, Crockett  – Ravens       

Lynch, Arthur  – Dolphins    

Niklas, Troy  – Cardinals    

All three of these guys are blockers first. Without a doubt they have pass catching skills, but not the kind that will be impactful fantasy wise at this juncture. Keep and eye on them, but I don’t think they worthy at this point.

 

-Ron

Post Draft Rookie Positional Rankings: RB

 

toast-beer

When looking at the rookies from a fantasy perspective, there is no silver bullet.  With any scouting, whether it’s fantasy or real life, there is a lot of subjectivity.   You would think with the amount of advanced statistics available you could mitigate the risk by using metrics. Though useful, they are only part of the equation.  Maybe there is a magic algorithm somewhere in the ether that will eventually reduce this to a numbers game.  Until the string theory of scouting is discovered, I use this.

Tape- What does he look like on tape? TV, youtube etc… Did he dominate?  Was he running people over, making people miss and running by them?  Do these skills translate in to the NFL?

Situation- How many players at his position are in front of him?   What are their skill levels? Age? Years remaining on their contracts?  Salary cap concerns?

Talent- How did he measure up in the combine and pro day?  Did he dominate on the field? Does he have a unique characteristic that can make him successful? Is he too small to be anything more than a 3rd down back or are his hands so bad he is only a 2 down back?

Scheme- What scheme is he playing in?  This is not always an absolute, but you should have idea of what type of offense he is in.  Does he fit what the team wants in a RB?  How does this scheme impact the player?

Run/Pass Ratio- How much do they pass?  How much do they run?  Be careful with this one.  EX. Drafting a WR4 on Seattle is not going to help you much unless you feel he can become more than a WR4 down the road.

Preseason Games – This is where you can tell a lot about what the team thinks of the player, how they will use him and how he stacks up against NFL competition.  Be careful watching a player going against 2nd and 3rd string players…

These rankings are slanted towards Dynasty Leagues

 

1          Sankey, Bishop           Titans

He has it all.  College Production, combine metrics, good tape and he’s in a situation where his only competition (Shonn Greene) is coming off knee surgery.

2          Williams, Andre          Giants

The Giants running back situation is muddled. Hillis is an aging RB. Jennings parlayed a good 5 game stretch into a nice FA contract, but is only a part time back.. David Wilson is coming off an injury and he has ball security issues.  Dynasty wise, he is a good bet.  Great college production and tough running style.

3          Hill, Jeremy                 Bengals

With BJE, aging and slowing, which now makes him really, really slow, Hill is the heir apparent for the power back role here.  He has the pedigree but there are character concerns. Could be the thunder to Gio Bernard’s lightening.

4          Freeman, Devonta       Falcons

I like, but don’t love Freeman from a talent perspective.  I really like his situation.  Jackson is on his last legs, Rodgers is just an average back.  Antone Smith might have been their best back last year.  This situation is wide open and he should have a great shot of getting significant playing time.

5          West, Terrance            Browns

He is firmly behind Ben Tate who signed a FA deal this offseason.  I can firmly say that Tate gets hurt every year.  He should be the unquestioned #2 here next year.  He played at a small school, I hope he can handle the speed of the NFL game.  If he can, he could eventually overtake Tate

6          Hyde, Carlos               49ers

This situation is different.  He is currently buried on the 49ers depth chart.  However, each guy he is behind has their warts.  Gore is aging, Lattimore is still recovering from that terrible knee injury, Hunter seems to be regarded as a change of pace (even though I think he can be more) and James seems to not have a role.   Where does that leave Hyde?  Beats me, but he has great talent and a great scheme fit in SF.  I wouldn’t expect immediate returns, but he has the talent to be an impact NFL player when he gets his shot.

7          Johnson, Storm           Jaguars

Perfect scheme fit. One cut and go for the zone scheme.  He is only really behind Gerhart.  Jordan Todman and Dennard Robinson seems to have undefined roles.  This bodes well for Johnson.  He could end up the #2 behind a guy that never has had to carry the load.

8          Mason, Tre                  Rams

Mason has average measureables, great production, good scheme fit and he is buried behind two capable RB’s in Stacy and Cunningham.   Pead and Richardson are wildcards, but candidates to be cut after a disappointing 2013. Mason seems to be a long term investment at this point.

9          Gaffney, Tyler            Panthers

Don’t expect to get an immediate return unless the panthers release Stewart or Williams.  Both are aging, injury prone and have cripplingly high salary cap numbers.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gaffney getting significant carries later in 2014.  He could be the future if he can adjust to the NFL.

10        White, James               Patriots

I like White.  Why did the Patriots select another RB when they have 3 capable on the roster?  Ridley and Vareen’s contracts are up after this offseason.  I would imagine only one would be back.   Vareen gets hurt a lot and Ridley has butterfingers so take your pick.  Brandon Bolden could also not be back.  White could conceivably be the starter in 2015.

11        Carey, Ka’Deem          Bears

It’s open season for the Bears back up running back position.  Carey can get the carries if he proves himself.  His value could really get an uptick if he plays well in the offseason.

12        McKinnon, Jerick        Vikings

A.P. is the man. He is one of best running backs of his generation. He is also getting older. He is coming off groin surgery. He has no back up RB.  Matt Asiatta is not enough.  Take a flyer late on this guy.

13        Blue, Alfred                Texans

Can do everything.  Can’t stay healthy.  Intriguing RB behind Foster.  Fosters’ age and health are becoming a factors.

14        Taliaferro, Lorenzo     Ravens

Ray Rice is having…legal issues.  Pierce is having shoulder issues.  Taliaferro could get some carries early.  Uncertain situation for sure.

15        Andrews, Antonio        Titans    

You never know when that UDFA beats out the higher ranked player.   A weak depth chart in front of him makes him draftable in dynasty leagues providing you have the roster depth.

15        Mairon Grice                   Chargers

Buried in a deep Chargers backfield.

16        Jerome Smith                   Falcons

Could be the Yin to Freeman’s Yang moving forward.  A player to watch.

17        Williams, Damien        Dolphins 

Crowded backfield situation.  Seems suited to the spread offense. Wait and see here.

18        Archer, Dri                  Steelers

Gadget back for the Steelers at this point.  Could he develop into Darrren Sproles?  History says the odds are against that, but his speed is elite.

19        Seastrunk, Lache         Redskins

See Damien Williams above. Possible replacement for Roy Helu who is in his contract year.

 

-Ron

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2013 – Week 14 Waiver Add/Drop

It’s getting thin and most rosters are locking out soon.   This will be out last of the waiver wire pick ups section.  We will have thoughts moving forward more directed and dynasty and keeper as some of the younger players get looks for the teams that have fallen out of playoff contention.

As always look at our past waiver wire updates for players that still may be available in your league.

Next year, we will work on another format to keep track of previous weeks  waiver pickups  in a useful way for our readers.

Drops

You might want to consider dropping WR Percy Harvin.  I am not sure how much he is going to play and if he does, he probably isn’t worth the start.   This was a homerun swing type pick up, sometimes you win sometimes you lose.

You also might want to drop RB Brian Leonard.  He hasn’t gotten many touches since Bobby Rainey’s big game 2 weeks ago.  There isn’t much out there, but there isn’t any room on my team for a guy that doesn’t get the ball.

WR Michael Crabtree –we told you have him on your radar and pick him up the past few weeks.  If you did, you are sitting pretty with a nice WR3 with upside.  If you didn’t, you will have to battle the rest of the league for him.

WR Andre Holmes – He isn’t worth much in a redraft league at this point.  He is worth a flier in dynasty if you have the roster spot.   Pay close attention to him in the next few weeks.   Not a must pick up, but a guy to keep an eye on in dynasty

TE Ladarius Green – Well we told you to start him last week.  If you listened to us, you were rewarded.   He had a nice game.  He also played 91% of the offensive snaps.   That bodes well moving forward for him.  If he is still out there in your league, He is worth the pickup, especially if you are weak at TE.

Raiders Defense – We aren’t crazy.  They are playing the   Jets this week.  The Jets are playing some of the worst offensive football I have seen since the 1992 Seahawks.   This is a good match up play this week.  If you are looking for a little juice for this week’s game  and your playoff push, look to Oakland!

– Ron

 

2013 – Week 13 Waiver Add/Drop

Listen, if you read this blog, you know we know our stuff. Go back and look at our track record.  We have called out waiver wire picks weeks before those “other sites.”  We do not state the obvious.  We do the work and you get the results.

The wire is thin as usual at this time of the year, but there are always opportunities.  Even if you are out of it, pick up a player to screw a playoff bound owner.  Play Spoiler, remember fantasy football is supposed to be fun!

 

WR Tiquan Underwood – Last week’s game came out of nowhere as Underwood had games of 8, 6 and 2 points the past three weeks since Mike Williams has gone down.  I am not really sure how much you can expect out of him moving forward, but he is a pick up that can fill out the back end of your roster for the play off push.  Hopefully his 3 catch 108 yard and 2 TD performance spurs him on to bigger and better games.

RB Dennis Johnson – Ben Tate has been banged up and last week those injuries may have caught up with him.  He ran only 7 times for a whopping one yard. Johnson’s 87 all-purpose yards and 15 touches last week should get him more carries moving forward.  Who knows, with a little luck, maybe he carries your team into the playoffs.  As of now, he is a low level Flex, but watch him.

QB Mike Glennon – I am always leery of adding rookie QB’s to my fantasy rosters.  They are wildly inconsistent and I don’t like dealing with their ups and downs.  However, Glennon is bucking that trend. He has played remarkably consistent and is giving solid production.  He is viable QB2 in most leagues and even worth a spot start moving forward.

WR Michael Crabtree – I have no idea what he is going to provide you moving forward.  He is all the way back from that Achilles injury? Will he and Kaepernick have the same chemistry as last year?  I know none of this.  I do know that he is active and he is returning to a WR needy team.  He is worth the risk to pick up. Hopefully you grabbed him already if not grab him now and sit him.  Wait a week.  If he looked good, you can evaluate him based off of that.

WR Julian Edleman – Buyer beware here.  I am only recommending this as a desperation pick up. He is too inconsistent to be relied upon week to week, but he has the ability to blow up.  He is a boom or bust play every week.

RB Benny Cunningham – I can’t help but think of the show “Happy Days” when I hear Benny’s name. However, Ron Howard, Tom Bosley and Henry Winkler cannot carry the ball as well as Benny Cunningham has. Mike has been on him all offseason as an undrafted rookie out of Middle Tennessee State.  Zac Stacy went down and Benny stepped up.  13 carries and 107 yards.  Impressive, but it was against the horrendous Bears run defense. If he gets the start for Stacy, he is a flex start depending on match ups.  If he is a backup, he is worth rostering, but carries substantially less value. If he starts, it will be happy days for you as an owner.

 

-Ron

2013 – Week 12 Waiver Add/Drop

Listen, if you read this blog, you know we know our stuff. Go back and look at our track record.  We have called out waiver wire picks weeks before those “other sites.”  We do not state the obvious.  We do the work and you get the results.

This time of year the waiver wire is thin.  This much is certain.  However, there are opportunities for you. At his point in the season, there are team owners in your league that have given up.  This will reduce the number of teams in play for waiver wire transactions. I can’t say this for all leagues, but for some, this is very possible.  Our view is to never give up. Be a spoiler. Beat your friends.  It’s fun to steal a player or knock your buddy out of the playoff race. Some don’t subscribe to this idea.

Did you pick up Bobby Rainey like we told you last week?  If you did you would have been rewarded.

FYI if you didn’t see “A Football Life – The Forward Pass” on the NFL network.  Watch it.  I am no slave to hyperbole, but it’s amazing.

Reread previous weeks post in the Waiver Wire section.  There may be players still sitting out on your leagues waiver wire that we talked about weeks ago.

WR Michael Floyd – He has probably been on and off rosters all season.  He had a monster last week, over 190 yards.  He is wildly inconsistent and is nowhere near a sure thing.  However, if you are searching for a WR.

WR Jericho Cotchery – Here is another guy that has been sitting out in your league on and off all season.  Recently, he has garnered more consistent playing time.  This has resulted in increased productivity. If Emmanuel Sanders is dinged up this week, he could be a sneaky WR3 play.

QB Matt McGloin – This guy torched a pretty good Texans secondary.  He is  an undrafted rookie.  In fact, he wasn’t even signed after the draft, he had several tryouts just do get into a camp.  He was 18 for 32 for 197 yards and 3 TD’s No ints.  I wouldn’t get crazy here. He is a low level injury or bye week replacement, but desperate times call for desperate measures.

Buffalo Bills Defense- Crazy right?  Depending on your scoring format, they are around 10th in the league in points.  At this point in the season, they can be a great matchup play if you choose wisely.  Get ready for this. They are leading the  league in interceptions with 16 and have 37 sacks that leads the league.   They are probably better than one or both of the defenses you are carrying.

-Ron

2013 – Week 11 Waiver Add/Drop

Listen, if you read this blog, you know we know our stuff. Go back and look at our track record.  We have called out waiver wire picks weeks before those “other sites.”  We do not state the obvious.  We do the work and you get the results.

This time of year the waiver wire is thin.  This much is certain.  However, there are opportunities for you. At his point in the season, there are team owners in your league that have given up.  This will reduce the number of teams in play for waiver wire transactions. I can’t say this for all leagues, but for some, this is very possible.  Our view is to never give up. Be a spoiler. Beat your friends.  It’s fun to steal a player or knock your buddy out of the playoff race. Some don’t subscribe to this idea.

Keep an eye on guys coming of off injuries.  Michael Crabtree is one.  Philosophically, you will want to get these injured players a week early, otherwise you will be battling the rest of your league for them.

Reread previous weeks post in the Waiver Wire section.  There may be players still sitting out on your leagues waiver wire that we talked about weeks ago.

WR Rishard Matthews- He had a monster game 10 catches over 100 yards and 2 TDS.  You will be battling most of your league for him this week, but you can’t argue with his production. Now the trick is if he can put up points consistently.

RB Bobby Rainey – Mike and I have liked this guy since last preseason when he was with the Ravens. I am not sure why he keeps getting cut.  He was given an opportunity to play last week because of Mike James injury and he showed what we saw two years ago.  Now, because he is a smaller speed back, I wouldn’t expect a lot of TD’s, but I could see him as a flex option moving forward.

WR Junior Hemmingway – Because Dwayne Bowe likes to smoke the herb and drive around suburban K.C. Junior gets a shot.   I have no idea how this will impact the Chiefs, but I do know that they are looking for production out of their WR’s and Hemmingway could work his way into the rotation if he can produce with his opportunities.

WR Andre Roberts – Here is a guy that is hot and cold.  I don’t think he has received the opportunities he has in the past, but I do like him especially if Mike Floyd is out this week. He might only be a one or two week replacement, but at this time of the year, the waiver wire is thin.

TE John Carlson – Well I wouldn’t expect much week to week from Carlson, but if you are in need of TE help, he is out there in your league. He is an average TE2 until further notice.

WR Tavon Austin – Here is another WR that you will be battling the rest of your league for on the waiver wire.  Honestly, his production up until last week’s game was weak.  There was a reason he was on the waiver wire.  He is worth the pick up if you need a WR, but please temper your expectations with him.  He is not going to score like that very often.  In fact, I wouldn’t expect him to do that again this year.

-Ron